• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces Ⅰ: England and Wales
【24h】

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces Ⅰ: England and Wales

机译：使用响应面Ⅰ的气候变化对洪水频率的概率影响：英格兰和威尔士

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The impacts of climate change on hydrology are an important focus of research around the world, but the use of large ensembles to drive impact models is not necessarily straightforward and has to be redone when new projections are released. Here, an alternative sensitivity framework approach is demonstrated, using a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). These projections comprise sets of 10,000 changes in a number of variables, available for 10 river-basin regions covering England and Wales. Estimates of the potential range of impacts on 20-year return period flood peaks are presented for different types of catchment in each region. Regional average impact ranges are compared for a number of time horizons and emissions scenarios. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. South-East England has the highest impacts with the greatest uncertainty range, while the Dee region has the lowest impacts and smallest uncertainty range. Regional differences are due to both spatial differences in projections and a differing regional balance in the number of catchments of each type. Ease of application of multiple projections is a clear advantage of this sensitivity-based approach to impact assessment, which could be extended to other regions and sectors.
机译：气候变化对水文学的影响是世界范围内研究的重要重点，但是使用大型整体来驱动影响模型并不一定很简单，在发布新的预测时必须重做。在此，通过一套典型的响应面以及概率英国气候预测（UKCP09），展示了一种替代的敏感性框架方法。这些预测包括一系列变量的10,000组变化，可用于覆盖英格兰和威尔士的10个流域地区。给出了每个地区不同类型集水区对20年回归期洪水高峰的潜在影响范围的估计值。比较了多个时间范围和排放情景下的区域平均影响范围。结果表明，不同类型的集水区之间和区域之间的影响存在明显差异。英格兰东南部的影响最大，不确定性范围最大，而迪地区的影响最小，不确定性范围最小。区域差异是由于预测的空间差异以及每种类型的集水区数量的区域平衡不同。易于应用多重预测是这种基于敏感性的影响评估方法的明显优势，该方法可以扩展到其他地区和部门。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2014年第3期|1215-1227|共13页
  • 作者

    A. L. Kay; S. M. Crooks; H. N. Davies; C. Prudhomme; N. S. Reynard;

  • 作者单位

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK;

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK;

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK;

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK;

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Response surfaces; Climate change; Floods; Adaptation; UKCP09;

    机译：响应面;气候变化;洪水;适应;英国CP09;

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号