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Low-frequency variability of storms in the northern Black Sea and associated processes in the ocean-atmosphere system

机译：黑海北部风暴的低频变化及海洋-大气系统的相关过程

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摘要

Monthly anomalies of stormy wind-wave heights and return periods are evaluated using secular routine observations in the coastal zone of the northern Black Sea. It is shown that wind-wave anomalies in this region are characterized by high-amplitude quasi-periodical variability with typical timescale of about 50 years. This timescale is determined by temporal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and coincides with periodicity of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Atmospheric re-analysis data show that cyclonic activity over the Black Sea basin intensifies when North Atlantic is relatively cold and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are more frequent in the North Atlantic-Eurasian region. This leads to generation of more frequent Black Sea storm events and enhanced recurrence of extreme waves and results in profound (and mostly negative) environmental consequences. When North Atlantic is relatively warm and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are less frequent in the North Atlantic-Eurasian region, environmental conditions in the Black Sea region are calmer. Thus, statistics of dangerous events can be wrongly estimated even if relatively long-term (～ 30 years) time series are considered and interdecadal variability of wind-wave anomalies must be taken into account when the risk assessment is accomplished.
机译：利用长期的常规观测在黑海北部沿海地区，评估了风浪高和返回期的月度异常。结果表明，该地区的风波异常具有典型的约50年时间尺度的高振幅准周期变化特征。该时标是由海洋-大气系统的时间变化确定的，并且与大西洋多年代际振荡的周期一致。大气再分析数据表明，北大西洋相对寒冷时，黑海盆地的气旋活动加剧，北大西洋-欧亚地区的子午形式的大气环流更为频繁。这导致更频繁的黑海风暴事件的产生和极端海浪的再次发生，并导致严重的（主要是负面的）环境后果。当北大西洋相对温暖，而北大西洋-欧亚地区的子午线形式的大气环流不那么频繁时，黑海地区的环境条件就会更加平静。因此，即使考虑相对较长的时间序列（约30年），也可能错误地估计危险事件的统计数据，并且在完成风险评估时必须考虑风浪异常的年代际变化。

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