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Assessment of climate change simulations over climate zones of Turkey

机译：评估土耳其气候区气候变化模拟

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Projected climate change over Turkey has been analyzed by using the reference (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climate simulations produced by ICTP-Reg-CM3. Since examining Turkey as a single region could be misleading due to the existence of complex topography and different climatic regions, Turkey has been separated into seven climatic regions to evaluate the surface temperature and precipitation changes. Comparison of the reference simulation with observations was made spatially by using a monthly gridded data set and area-averaged surface data compiled from 114 meteorological stations for each climatic region of Turkey. In the future simulation, warming over Turkey's climatic regions is in the range of 2-5 ℃. Summer warming over western regions of Turkey is 3 ℃ higher than the winter warming. During winter, in the future simulation, precipitation decreases very significantly over southeastern Turkey (24 %), which covers most of the upstream of Euphrates and Tigris river basin. This projected decrease could be a major source of concern for Turkey and the neighboring countries. Our results indicate that a significant increase (48 %) in the autumn season precipitation is simulated over southeastern Turkey, which may help to offset the winter deficit and therefore reduce the net change during the annual cycle.
机译：土耳其的预计气候变化已通过使用ICTP-Reg-CM3进行的参考（1961-1990年）和未来的气候模拟（2071-2100年）进行了分析。由于将土耳其作为一个地区进行检查可能会因地形复杂且气候区域不同而产生误导，因此土耳其已分为七个气候区域来评估地表温度和降水变化。通过使用每月栅格数据集和从114个气象站为土耳其每个气候区汇编的面积平均地面数据，在空间上进行了参考模拟与观测值的比较。在未来的模拟中，土耳其气候区域的变暖范围为2-5℃。土耳其西部地区的夏季变暖比冬季变暖高3℃。在冬季，在未来的模拟中，土耳其东南部的降雨显着减少（24％），该地区覆盖了幼发拉底河和底格里斯河流域的大部分上游。预计这一下降可能是土耳其和邻国关注的主要问题。我们的结果表明，土耳其东南部的秋季降水明显增加（48％），这可能有助于抵消冬季的赤字，从而减少年度周期的净变化。

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