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Sensitivity of typical Mediterranean crops to past and future evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation in Apulia

机译：典型地中海作物对普利亚过去和未来季节性温度和降水演变的敏感性

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The region of Apulia, which is located in the south-east tip of the Italian Peninsula, has a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot-dry summers. Agriculture, an important sector of its economy, is potentially threatened by future climate change. This study describes the evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation from the recent past to the next decades and estimates future potential impacts of climate change on three main agricultural products: wine, wheat and olives. Analysis is based on instrumental data, on an ensemble of climate projections and on a linear regression model linking these three agricultural products to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. In Apulia, precipitation and temperature time series show trends toward warmer and marginally drier conditions during the whole analyzed(1951-2005) period: 0.18 ℃/decade in mean annual minimum temperature and -14.9 mm/decade in the annual total precipitation. Temperature trends have been progressively increasing and rates of change have become noticeably more intense during the last 25 years of the twentieth century. Model simulations are consistent with observed trends for the period 1951-2000 and show a large acceleration of the warming rate in the period 2001-2050 with respect to the period 1951-2000. Further, in the period 2001-2050, simulations show a decrease in precipitation, which was not present in the previous 50 years. Wine production, wheat and olive harvest records show large inter-annual variability with statistically significant links to seasonal temperature and precipitation, whose strength, however, strongly depends on the considered variables. Linear regression analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation variability explains a small, but not negligible, fraction of the inter-annual variability of these crops (40,18,9 % for wine, olives and wheat, respectively). Results (which consider no adaptation of crops and no fertilization effect of CO_2) suggest that evolution of these seasonal climate variables in the first half of the twenty-first century could decrease all considered variables. The most affected is wine production (-20 ÷ 26 %). The effect is relevant also on harvested olives (-8 ÷ 19 %) and negligible on harvested wheat (-4 ÷ 1 %).
机译：普利亚地区位于意大利半岛的东南端，具有典型的地中海气候，冬季温和，夏季炎热干燥。农业是其经济的重要部门，可能受到未来气候变化的威胁。这项研究描述了从最近到下一个几十年的季节性温度和降水变化，并估计了气候变化对三种主要农产品的未来潜在影响：葡萄酒，小麦和橄榄。分析基于仪器数据，整体气候预测以及基于将这三种农产品与温度和降水的季节性值相关联的线性回归模型。在普利亚，整个分析期间（1951-2005年），降水和温度时间序列都显示出趋于温暖和边缘干燥的趋势：年平均最低温度为0.18℃/十年，年总降水量为-14.9毫米/十年。在二十世纪的最后25年中，温度趋势一直在逐渐增加，变化速率变得更加明显。模型模拟与1951-2000年期间观察到的趋势一致，并且显示2001年至1950年期间相对于1951-2000年期间的升温速率有较大的加速。此外，在2001年至2050年期间，模拟显示降水减少，这在过去50年中没有出现。葡萄酒的产量，小麦和橄榄的收成记录显示，年际变化很大，与季节温度和降水在统计上有显着联系，但是其强度在很大程度上取决于所考虑的变量。线性回归分析表明，季节性温度和降水变化解释了这些作物的年际变化很小（但不可忽略）（葡萄酒，橄榄和小麦分别为40,18,9％）。结果（考虑到没有作物适应和没有CO_2的施肥效应）表明，这些季节性气候变量在二十一世纪上半叶的演变可以减少所有考虑的变量。影响最大的是葡萄酒产量（-20÷26％）。该效果对收获的橄榄（-8÷19％）也很重要，对收获的小麦（-4÷1％）微不足道。

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