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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century
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Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

机译：模型预测了二十一世纪东地中海和中东的极端温度和空气污染

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摘要

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.
机译：地中海东部和中东是一个具有不同社会经济和文化特征的地区，其温带北部和干旱南部之间处于强烈的气候梯度之下。二十一世纪的模型预测表明，炎热天气的增加和降雨的减少。我们提供了模型结果，这表明整个巴尔干半岛和土耳其的气候变化特别迅速，尤其是夏季温度预计会急剧上升。大量降雨导致的大型天气系统的减弱促使土壤水分枯竭，从而限制了蒸发冷却，从而加剧了温度上升。预计在近代很少发生的炎热夏季到本世纪中叶和下半叶将变得很普遍。在整个地区，每年的热浪天数可能会急剧增加。此外，该地区的条件有利于光化学空气污染。我们的模型预测表明，臭氧形成将大大增加，这是一个混杂的健康风险因素，尤其是在城市地区。这会增加来自自然（沙漠尘土）和人为来源的高浓度气溶胶颗粒。极端高温可能会产生强烈影响，尤其是在环境压力很大的中东地区。

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