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The rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in China and related carbon dioxide abatement costs

机译：中国光伏产业的快速发展及相关的二氧化碳减排成本

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摘要

There is a consensus within the international community that replacing traditional fossil energy with renewable energy, such as photovoltaic energy, will help mitigate climate change. However, the literature addressing the rapid development issues of the photovoltaic industry and related carbon dioxide abatement costs is limited. China is currently the largest photovoltaic producer and consumer in the world, hence suitable as our research object. In this paper, a fixed effect panel model with provincial panel data during the period 2012-2016 is applied to study the factors that influence China's photovoltaic industry. The empirical results indicate that carbon dioxide emission mitigation requirements, government subsidies, technological progress, energy substitution, economic growth, and illumination resources promote the development of the photovoltaic industry. We further adapt the cost estimation model to estimate the average carbon dioxide abatement cost of photovoltaic electric power in China at 679.72 yuan/ton in 2015 and 681.88 yuan/ton in 2016. Compared with wind power and biomass energy, photovoltaic electric power is currently less economical for carbon dioxide emission reduction. Moreover, the future carbon dioxide abatement cost is predicted using a scenario analysis at 118.94-259.42 yuan/ton in 2025 and 42.63-171.95 yuan/ton in 2030. Since the carbon dioxide abatement cost in 2030 is in line with the future price level of the carbon trading market, it will be both economical and feasible to use photovoltaic electric power to decrease carbon dioxide emissions in the future.
机译：国际社会内有一项达成共识，即用可再生能源（如光伏能量）取代传统化石能，将有助于减轻气候变化。然而，解决光伏行业快速发展问题和相关二氧化碳减排成本的文献有限。中国目前是世界上最大的光伏生产商和消费者，因此适合作为我们的研究对象。本文采用了2012 - 2016年期间的省级面板数据的固定效应面板模型研究了影响中国光伏产业的因素。经验结果表明，二氧化碳排放减排要求，政府补贴，技术进步，能源替代，经济增长和照明资源促进了光伏产业的发展。我们进一步调整了成本估算模型，以估算2015年679.72元/吨的中国光伏电力的平均二氧化碳减排成本和2016年681.88元/吨。与风力和生物质能量相比，光伏电力目前较低二氧化碳减排经济。此外，在2025年2025年的118.94-259.42元/吨的情况下，预测了未来的二氧化碳减排成本。由于2030年的42.63-171.95元/吨。由于2030年的二氧化碳减排成本符合未来的价格水平碳交易市场，使用光伏电力将来会降低二氧化碳排放的经济性和可行。

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