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Productivity of rainfed wheat as affected by climate change scenario in northeastern Punjab, India

机译：印度旁遮普东北部受气候变化影响的雨养小麦生产力

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摘要

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is grown as a rainfed crop in the sub-mountainous region of the Punjab state of India, with low crop and water productivity. The present study aims to assess the effect of climate change scenario (A1B) derived from PRECIS-a regional climate model-on wheat yield and water productivity. After minimizing bias in the model climate data for mid-century (2021-2050), evapotranspiration (ET) and yield of wheat crop were simulated using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, version 4.5, model. In the changed climate, increased temperature would cause reduction in wheat yield to the extent of 4, 32 and 61 % in the mid-century periods between 2021-2030, 2031-2040 and 2041-2050, respectively, by increasing water stress and decreasing utilization efficiency of photosynthetically active radiation. The decreases in crop water productivity would be 40, 56 and 76 %, respectively, which are caused by decreased yield and increased ET. Planting of wheat up to November 25 till the years 2030-2031 seems to be helpful to mitigate the climate change effect, but not beyond that.
机译：小麦（Triticum aestivum L.）在印度旁遮普邦的山下地区以雨养作物的形式生长，作物和水分生产率较低。本研究旨在评估源自PRECIS（一种区域气候模型）的气候变化情景（A1B）对小麦产量和水分生产率的影响。在将本世纪中叶（2021-2050）的模型气候数据中的偏差最小化之后，使用“农业技术转移决策支持系统” 4.5版模型对小麦的蒸散量（ET）和小麦作物的产量进行了模拟。在气候变化的情况下，温度升高会使本世纪中叶2021-2030、2031-2040和2041-2050之间的小麦产量分别下降4％，32％和61％，这是通过增加水分胁迫和减少水分胁迫来实现的。光合有效辐射的利用效率。作物水分生产率的下降将分别为40％，56％和76％，这是由于产量下降和ET升高所致。直到11月25日直到2030年至2031年之间的小麦播种似乎都有助于减轻气候变化的影响，但没有超出此范围。

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