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Climate change and temperature rise in the Greater Beirut Area: implications on heat-related premature mortality

机译：大贝鲁特地区的气候变化和温度上升：对与热有关的过早死亡的影响

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摘要

This study attempts to quantify climate change-induced increase in premature mortality associated with temperature rise with corresponding socioeconomic implications in the context of an urban coastal city, taking the Greater Beirut Area as a study area. Future climatic conditions under four different emissions scenarios were considered to cover a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. During the first half of the twenty-first century, the expected life losses due to high temperatures in hot days are offset by expected life gains due to improved temperatures in cold days, except under the scenario which characterizes fossil fuel intensive development. By the year 2095, the annual average all-cause premature mortality is expected to increase by 3-15 %, depending on the scenario.
机译：这项研究试图以大贝鲁特地区为研究区域，对城市沿海城市背景下由气候变化引起的与温度上升相关的过早死亡的增加以及相应的社会经济影响进行量化。四种不同排放情景下的未来气候条件被认为涵盖了广泛的驱动力以及潜在的社会，经济和技术发展。在二十一世纪上半叶，由于在炎热的日子里高温导致的预期寿命损失被在寒冷的日子里温度升高导致的预期寿命增加所抵消，除非是化石燃料密集开发的情况。到2095年，根据情况的不同，每年平均全因过早死亡预计将增加3-15％。

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