Assessing the value of climate information and forecasts for the agricultural sector in the Southeastern United States: multi-output stochastic frontier approach

Daniel Solis; David Letson

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Assessing the value of climate information and forecasts for the agricultural sector in the Southeastern United States: multi-output stochastic frontier approach

机译：评估气候信息和预测对美国东南部农业的价值：多产出随机前沿方法

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A multi-output/input stochastic distance frontier model is used to analyze the effect of interannual climatic variability on agricultural production and to assess the impact of climate forecasts on the economic performance of this sector in the Southeastern United States. The results show that the omission of climatic conditions when estimating regional agricultural production models could lead to biased technical efficiency (TE) estimates. This climate bias may significantly affect the effectiveness of rural development policies based on regional economic performance comparisons. We also found that seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts have a positive effect on economic performance of agriculture. However, the effectiveness of climate forecasts on improving TE is sensitive to the type of climate index used. Policy implications stemming from the results are also presented.

机译：一个多输出/输入随机距离边界模型用于分析年际气候变化对农业生产的影响，并评估气候预测对该部门在美国东南部经济表现的影响。结果表明，在估算区域农业生产模型时忽略气候条件可能会导致技术效率（TE）估算值出现偏差。根据地区经济表现比较，这种气候偏见可能会严重影响农村发展政策的有效性。我们还发现，季节性降雨和温度预报对农业的经济绩效有积极影响。但是，气候预报对改善TE的有效性对所用气候指数的类型敏感。结果也提出了政策含义。

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来源
《Regional Environmental Change》 |2013年第1期|S5-S14|共10页
作者
Daniel Solis; David Letson;
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作者单位

Division of Marine Affairs and Policy (MAF), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,Miami, FL 33149, USA;

Division of Marine Affairs and Policy (MAF), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway,Miami, FL 33149, USA;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
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关键词
US Agriculture; Climate bias; Value of information; Production frontier;

机译：美国农业;气候偏见;信息的价值;生产前沿;

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Assessing the value of climate information and forecasts for the agricultural sector in the Southeastern United States: multi-output stochastic frontier approach

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