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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >The impact of climate change on rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves in Alabama
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The impact of climate change on rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves in Alabama

机译：气候变化对阿拉巴马州降雨强度-持续时间-频率（IDF）曲线的影响

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摘要

Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases are projected to cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water management infrastructures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary. This study was undertaken to assess expected changes in IDF curves from the current climate to the projected future climate. To provide future IDF curves, 3-hourly precipitation data simulated by six combinations of global and regional climate models were temporally downscaled using a stochastic method. Performance of the downscaling method was evaluated, and IDF curves were developed for the state of Alabama. The results of all six climate models suggest that the future precipitation patterns for Alabama are expected to veer toward less intense rainfalls for short duration events. However, for long duration events (i.e.,>4 h), the results are not consistent across the models. Given a large uncertainty existed on projected rainfall intensity of these six climate models, developing an ensemble model as a result of incorporating all six climate models, performing an uncertainty analysis, and creating a probability based IDF curves could be proper solutions to diminish this uncertainty.
机译：预计由于温室气体增加而引起的水文循环变化将导致降水事件的强度，持续时间和频率发生变化。量化气候变化的潜在影响并使其适应是减少脆弱性的一种方法。由于通常使用降雨特征来设计水管理基础设施，因此有必要审查和更新降雨特征（即强度-持续时间-频率（IDF）曲线）以应对未来的气候情景。进行这项研究是为了评估IDF曲线从当前气候到预计未来气候的预期变化。为了提供未来的IDF曲线，使用随机方法在时间上缩减了由全球和区域气候模型的六种组合模拟的3小时降水数据。评估了缩减方法的性能，并针对阿拉巴马州开发了IDF曲线。所有六个气候模式的结果表明，对于短期事件，预计阿拉巴马州未来的降水模式将趋向于强度较小的降雨。但是，对于持续时间较长的事件（即> 4小时），结果在各个模型之间均不一致。鉴于这六个气候模型的预计降雨强度存在很大的不确定性，因此通过合并所有六个气候模型，进行不确定性分析并创建基于概率的IDF曲线来开发集成模型可能是减少此不确定性的适当解决方案。

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