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Hydrologic impacts of future climate change on Southeast US watersheds

机译：未来气候变化对美国东南流域的水文影响

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摘要

The hydrological impact of climate change is assessed for 28 watersheds located within the Southeast United States using output from global climate models (GCMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) run. Subsequently, the impact of projected change in seasonal streamflow is derived by propagating projected scenarios, generated using changes derived from GCMs and weather generators, through a suite of conceptual hydrological models. Analysis shows that the spread in the magnitude of change in temperature and rainfall for CMIP3 is wider than that for CMIP5. The reduction in the spread among many factors may be attributed to improved physics, model number and resolution, and emission scenarios. The spread in projected change in temperature (precipitation) increases (decreases) from southernmost to northernmost latitude. Hydrological projection with CMIP3 output for the 2070s shows that streamflow decreases for most of the watersheds in spring and summer and increased in fall. In contrast, CMIP5 results show an increase in flow for all seasons except with the high-end scenarios in spring. However, the uncertainty in projections in streamflow is high with model uncertainty dominating emission scenario. The variability in prediction uncertainty among watersheds is partly explained by the variability in wetness index. The probability distribution function for projected seasonal flow for each scenario is markedly wide and therefore reflects that the uncertainty associated with using multiple GCMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 experiment is high which makes design and implementation of adaption measure a difficult task.
机译：使用气候模型比较项目第3阶段（CMIP3）和第5阶段（CMIP5）运行的全球气候模型（GCM）的输出，评估了美国东南部28个流域的气候变化对水文的影响。随后，通过使用一系列概念性水文模型，传播利用来自GCM和天气发生器的变化而生成的预测情景，来推导出季节性流量变化的预期影响。分析表明，CMIP3的温度和降雨变化幅度的分布比CMIP5的宽。许多因素之间传播的减少可能归因于改进的物理性能，型号数量和分辨率以及排放情景。从最南端到最北端，预计的温度变化（降水）的分布范围增加（减少）。 2070年代带有CMIP3输出的水文预测表明，春季和夏季大多数流域的水流量减少，而秋季则增加。相比之下，CMIP5结果显示，除春季高端情景外，所有季节的流量都有所增加。然而，在模型不确定性主导排放情景的情况下，流量预测的不确定性很高。流域之间的预测不确定性的变化部分由湿度指数的变化来解释。每种情况下预计季节流量的概率分布函数都非常大，因此反映出与使用来自CMIP3和CMIP5实验的多个GCM相关的不确定性很高，这使得适应性措施的设计和实施成为一项艰巨的任务。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2013年第1期|S131-S139|共9页
  • 作者

    Satish Bastola;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr., 200 RM Johnson Bldg.,Tallahassee, FL 32306-2840, USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    CMIP3; CMIP5; Hydrological models; GLUE;

    机译：CMIP3;CMIP5;水文模型;胶;

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