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Nutrient export by rivers to the coastal waters of China: management strategies and future trends

机译:河流向中国沿海水域的养分出口:管理战略和未来趋势

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摘要

We analyzed past and future trends in river export of dissolved nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the coastal waters of China, for a selection of rivers, as calculated by the Global NEWS models (Nutrient Export from Watersheds). Over the period 1970-2000, river export of dissolved nutrients increased considerably, especially of dissolved inorganic N and P. Anthropogenic sources of N and P in rivers have become increasingly important, in particular N and P losses from agriculture. We tested the sensitivity of calculated nutrient export by rivers to changes in selected controlling factors. The calculated export of dissolved N and P is sensitive to changes in hydrology, synthetic fertilizer use and manure excretion in river basins. Changes in sewage inputs have large effects on dissolved inorganic P export. We analyzed future trends up to 2050 for several scenarios to illustrate the combined effects of selected management options. In the Base Scenario, the N and P export by the selected rivers increases considerably between 2000 and 2030. The increase continues from 2030 to 2050 except for DIP. Strategies to reduce N and P export by rivers include changes in agriculture, sewage and energy use. Changes in agriculture have the largest impact on future dissolved N and P river export to the coastal waters of China. The effectiveness of reduction strategies differs between nutrient forms and basins.
机译:根据全球NEWS模型(流域养分出口)计算,我们分析了河​​流中溶解氮(N)和磷(P)向中国沿海水域出口的过去和未来趋势,从而选择了部分河流。在1970-2000年期间,河流中溶解性养分的出口量显着增加,特别是溶解性无机氮和磷的出口量。人为源于河流中的氮和磷的来源变得越来越重要,尤其是农业中氮和磷的损失。我们测试了河流计算出的养分出口对所选控制因素变化的敏感性。计算得出的溶解氮和磷的出口量对流域水文学,合成肥料的使用和粪便排泄量的变化很敏感。污水投入量的变化对溶解性无机磷的出口有很大影响。我们针对几种情况分析了到2050年的未来趋势,以说明选定管理选项的综合效果。在基本方案中,选定的河流的氮和磷出口在2000年至2030年之间显着增加。除了DIP之外,这种增长在2030年至2050年之间继续。减少河流氮和磷出口的战略包括农业,污水和能源使用的变化。农业的变化对未来向中国沿海水域溶解的氮和磷河出口的影响最大。不同养分形式和流域减少策略的有效性不同。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2012年第1期|p.153-167|共15页
  • 作者

    Hong Juan Qu; Carolien Kroeze;

  • 作者单位

    Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China;

    Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,School of Science, Open University of The Netherlands, P.O. Box 2960, 6401 DL Heerlen, The Netherlands;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    nutrient export; river; coastal waters; management strategy; sensitivity analysis; scenario;

    机译:营养物质出口;河;沿海水域;管理战略;敏感性分析;情景;

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