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Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA

机译：海平面上升对非洲的影响以及减缓和适应的影响：DIVA的应用

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摘要

This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995-2100. We find that in 2100, 16-27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US$ 5 and US$ 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11-36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa's current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US$ 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US$ 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US$ 2 and US$ 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies.
机译：本文考虑了1995年至2100年期间全球平均海平面从64厘米上升至126厘米的四种情况，评估了大陆和国家范围内海平面上升对非洲的影响，包括缓解措施和采取适应措施的好处。我们发现，在2100年，如果不进行适应，预计每年将淹没16-27百万人，每年的破坏成本在5到90亿美元之间。缓解措施可将影响降低11-36％。以建筑堤防的形式进行适应以防止沿海洪水，并通过滋养海滩以防止海岸侵蚀来进行适应，从而将洪水泛滥的人数减少了两个数量级，并在2100年之前将破坏成本削减了一半。采用这种保护策略将需要大量投资。首先，需要解决非洲目前在沿海洪灾方面的适应缺陷。 DIVA建议，需要3,000亿美元的资本投资来建造适应当前浪涌状态的堤防，每年需要30亿美元用于维护。此外，到2100年，每年需要花费2到60亿美元来防止未来的海平面上升和社会经济发展。这表明，从货币角度看，保护不是有效的，但仍然是可取的同时还要考虑避免的社会影响。我们得出结论，这个问题需要进一步调查，包括地方规模研究，结合发展议程来研究影响和适应，并考虑更广泛的适应方案和策略。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2012年第1期|p.207-224|共18页
  • 作者

    Jochen Hinkel; Sally Brown; Lars Exner; Robert J. Nicholls; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Abiy S. Kebede;

  • 作者单位

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). P.O. Box 601203, Potsdam, Germany,European Climate Forum (ECF), P.O. Box 600648, Potsdam, Germany;

    School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton SO 17 1BJ, UK;

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). P.O. Box 601203, Potsdam, Germany;

    School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton SO 17 1BJ, UK;

    Institute of Geography, 'Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise' Research Group, The Future Ocean Excellence Cluster, Christian-Albrechts University Kiel, Ludewig-Meyn-Str. 14, 24098 Kiel, Germany;

    School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton SO 17 1BJ, UK;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    adaptation; Africa; climate change impacts; mitigation; sea-level rise;

    机译：适应;非洲;气候变化影响;减轻;海平面上升;

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