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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
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Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

机译：极端气候的暴露和脆弱性：坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆沿海洪水的人口和资产暴露

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The paper provides a first quantitative estimate of the potential number of people and value of assets exposed to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study used an elevation-based geographic information system-analysis based on physical exposure and socioeconomic vulnerability under a range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios. It particularly considered a worst-case scenario assuming even if defences (natural and/or manmade) exist, they are subjected to failure under a 100-year flood event. About 8% of Dar es Salaam lies within the low-elevation coastal zone (below the 10 m contour lines). Over 210,000 people could be exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 30,000 people in 2005. The asset that could be damaged due to such event is also estimated to rise from US$35 million (2005) to US$10 billion (2070). Results show that socio-economic changes in terms of rapid population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, and their spatial distribution play a significant role over climate change in the overall increase in exposure. However, the study illustrates that steering development away from low-lying areas that are not (or less) threatened by sea-level rise and extreme climates could be an effective strategic response to reduce the future growth in exposure. Enforcement of such policy where informal settlements dominate urbanisation (as in many developing countries) could undoubtedly be a major issue. It should be recognised that this analysis only provides indicative results. Lack of sufficient and good quality observational local climate data (e.g. long-term sea-level measurements), finerresolution spatial population and asset distribution and local elevation data, and detailed information about existing coastal defences and current protection levels are identified as limitations of the study. As such, it should be seen as a first step towards analysing these issues and needs to be followed by more detailed, city-based analyses.
机译：本文提供了对坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆沿海洪灾潜在人数和资产价值的初步定量估计。该研究使用了基于海拔的地理信息系统分析，该分析基于一系列气候和社会经济情景下的自然暴露和社会经济脆弱性。它特别考虑了最坏的情况，即假设即使存在防御（自然和/或人为），防御也将在100年的洪水事件中遭受破坏。达累斯萨拉姆（Dar es Salaam）约有8％位于低海拔沿海地区（在10 m等高线以下）。到2070年，将有210,000人面临100年的沿海洪水事件，而2005年为30,000人。由于此类事件而可能遭受破坏的资产估计也从3500万美元（2005年）增至100亿美元。 （2070）。结果表明，在人口的快速增长，城市化，经济增长及其空间分布方面，社会经济变化在总体暴露增加中对气候变化起着重要作用。但是，研究表明，将发展从不受（或较少受到）海平面上升和极端气候威胁的低洼地区带走，可能是减少未来暴露量增长的有效战略对策。在非正式住区主导城市化的情况下（像许多发展中国家一样）执行这种政策无疑是一个主要问题。应该认识到，该分析仅提供指示性结果。缺乏足够和高质量的当地观测气候数据（例如，长期海平面测量），更高分辨率的空间人口和资产分布以及当地海拔数据以及有关现有沿海防御和当前保护水平的详细信息被认为是研究的局限性。因此，应将其视为分析这些问题的第一步，并需要随后进行更详细的基于城市的分析。

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