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An agent-based model of groundwater over-exploitation in the Upper Guadiana, Spain

机译：西班牙上瓜迪亚纳的基于主体的地下水超采模型

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Irrigated agriculture is a main user of groundwater. Achieving a sustainable use of groundwater will often require agricultural land-use changes such as shifting to entirely different kinds of crops and/or technologies. Enhanced understanding of land-use change is hence required for developing policies for a sustainable water future. We use an agent-based model to investigate the history of irrigated agriculture in the Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain, in order to learn about the influence of farmers' characteristics on land-use change and associated groundwater over-use. A shift from vineyards and cereals to horticultural crops would provide a possibility for higher income with less water use. Such a shift cannot be observed historically. The model results suggest that risk aversion and path dependency are insufficient to explain this observation, and the organisational set-up of farms limiting the maximum labour force needs to be considered as additional explanatory factor. Furthermore, it is shown that different types of farms existing in the UGB can be expected to exhibit distinct responses to drivers of land-use change such as agricultural policies. It is concluded that a sound understanding of the social system making use of a resource is required to solve problems of resource over-use. This article demonstrates that agent-based models can be useful tools to enhance such an understanding even in situations of scarce and uncertain data that are often encountered when dealing with resource-use problems.
机译：灌溉农业是地下水的主要使用者。实现地下水的可持续利用通常需要改变农业用地，例如转向完全不同的作物和/或技术。因此，为制定可持续的水未来政策需要对土地利用变化有更多的了解。我们使用基于主体的模型来调查西班牙上瓜迪亚纳盆地的灌溉农业历史，以了解农民特征对土地利用变化和相关地下水过度利用的影响。从葡萄园和谷类转向园艺作物，将有可能在减少用水的情况下增加收入。从历史上无法观察到这种转变。模型结果表明，风险规避和路径依赖不足以解释这一现象，并且限制最大劳动力的农场的组织设置需要被视为额外的解释因素。此外，研究表明，可以预期，UGB中存在不同类型的农场，它们会对诸如农业政策之类的土地利用变化的驱动因素表现出不同的反应。结论是，解决资源过度使用的问题需要对利用资源的社会系统有深刻的了解。本文证明，即使在处理资源使用问题时经常遇到的数据稀缺和不确定的情况下，基于代理的模型也可以成为增强这种理解的有用工具。

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