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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Present and future environmental impacts on the coastal zone of Berau (East Kalimantan, Indonesia), a deductive scenario analysis
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Present and future environmental impacts on the coastal zone of Berau (East Kalimantan, Indonesia), a deductive scenario analysis

机译：演绎情景分析对贝劳沿海地区（印度尼西亚东加里曼丹）的当前和未来环境影响

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Using the drivers-pressures-state-impact-responses (DPSIR) analytical framework, local stakeholder respondents and experts were interviewed to construct and prioritize a causality network that links ecosystem state of the coastal waters of Berau (East Kalimantan, Indonesia) with societal drivers of change. Particularly on the perceived top priority drivers and pressures, consensus among respondents was considerable. The constructed network was found to be consistent with literature findings from elsewhere in SE Asia. This causality network was then confronted with a local articulation of the SRES scenarios (IPCCs Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A1, A2, B1, B2), and four plausible trajectories of future change were deduced over a period of 20 years, until 2030. Our scenario articulations differed greatly in the projected immigration influx into the region, in local economic growth and in institutional strength of governance. Under business-as-usual conditions, it is foreseen that fisheries will continue to overexploit the resource, and inland and mangrove deforestation, as well as sediment and sewage loading of the coastal waters, will increase, leading to declines in coral and seagrass extent and depleted fisheries. Scenarios with continued immigration (~ A1, A2) will probably aggravate this pattern, whereas those with reduced immigration (~ B1, B2) would appear to lead to considerable improvements in the state of the coastal waters of Berau.
机译：使用驱动程序-压力-状态-影响-响应（DPSIR）分析框架，对当地利益相关者和专家进行了采访，以构建并优先考虑将Berau（印度尼西亚东加里曼丹）沿海水域的生态系统状态与社会驱动程序联系起来的因果关系网络变化。特别是在最重要的驱动因素和压力上，受访者之间的共识是可观的。发现构建的网络与东南亚其他地区的文献发现相符。然后，这个因果关系网络面临着SRES情景的局部阐述（IPCC的排放情景特别报告：A1，A2，B1，B2），并在20年的时间内推论出了四个可能的未来变化轨迹，直到2030年。我们的情景说明在预计的移民涌入该地区，当地的经济增长和治理的机构实力方面有很大的不同。可以预见，在一切照旧的情况下，渔业将继续过度利用资源，内陆和红树林的砍伐以及沿海水域的沉积物和污水负荷将增加，从而导致珊瑚和海草的减少以及渔业枯竭。继续移民的情况（〜A1，A2）可能会加剧这种情况，而那些移民减少的情况（〜B1，B2）似乎会导致Berau沿海水域状况的显着改善。

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