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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Precipitation or evapotranspi ration? Bayesian analysis of potential error sources in the simulation of sub-basin discharges in the Czech Elbe River basin
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Precipitation or evapotranspi ration? Bayesian analysis of potential error sources in the simulation of sub-basin discharges in the Czech Elbe River basin

机译：降水或蒸散？捷克易北河流域次流域流量模拟中潜在误差源的贝叶斯分析

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摘要

A global change assessment required detailed simulation of water availability in the Elbe River basin in Central Europe (148,268 km2). Using the spatially semi-distributed, eco-hydrological model SWIM, spatial calibration was applied. For 225 sub-areas covering the model domain (134,890 km2), evapotranspiration and groundwa-ter dynamics were individually adjusted. The calibration aimed at good correspondences with long-term run-off contributions and the hydrographs for two extreme years. Measured run-off was revised from water management effects to produce quasi-natural discharges for calibration. At some gauges, there were large volume differences between these reference data and the simulations of the spatially uncalibrated model. Most affected were some sub-basins in the Czech part of the basin where the density of available climate stations was much lower than the German part. Thus, both erroneous precipitation data and systematic flaws in the evapotranspiration module of SWIM could have caused the differences. In order to identify the major error source and to validate the choice of spatial calibration parameters (evapotranspiration and groundwater dynamic corrections), MCMC analyses were made for three Czech areas. Optional precipitation correction had been considered by a third calibration parameter in the MCMC assessment. In two of the three cases, it can be shown that evapotranspiration corrections are preferable as precipitation errors are negligible. In the third case, where the analyses indicate a substantial error in precipitation data, an interpolation problem of the climate data at the edge of the model domain could be found. Hence, the applied method shows its potential to identify specific sources of uncertainty in hydrological modelling.
机译：全球变化评估需要详细模拟中欧易北河流域的可用水量（148,268平方公里）。使用空间半分布式生态水文模型SWIM，应用了空间校准。对于覆盖模型域（134,890平方千米）的225个子区域，蒸散量和地下水动态分别进行了调整。该标定旨在与长期径流贡献和两个极端年份的水文图保持良好的对应关系。对测得的径流从水管理影响进行了修订，以产生准自然排放量进行校准。在某些规格下，这些参考数据与空间未校准模型的模拟之间存在很大的体积差异。受灾最严重的是该盆地捷克部分的一些子盆地，那里的可用气候站密度远低于德国部分。因此，SWIM的蒸散模块中的降水数据错误和系统缺陷都可能引起差异。为了确定主要的误差源并验证空间校准参数的选择（蒸散量和地下水动态校正），对三个捷克地区进行了MCMC分析。在MCMC评估中，通过第三校准参数考虑了可选的降水校正。在这三种情况中的两种情况下，可以证明蒸发蒸腾量的校正是可取的，因为降水误差可以忽略不计。在第三种情况下，分析表明降水数据存在重大误差，可以在模型域的边缘发现气候数据的插值问题。因此，所应用的方法显示出其潜力，可以确定水文建模中不确定性的具体来源。

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