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Sensitivity of potential natural vegetation in China to projected changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO_2

机译：中国潜在的自然植被对温度，降水和大气CO_2预测变化的敏感性

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摘要

A sensitivity study was performed to investigate the responses of potential natural vegetation distribution in China to the separate and combined effects of temperature, precipitation and [CO_2], using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BI0ME4. The model shows a generally good agreement with a map of the potential natural vegetation distribution based on a numerical comparison using the AV statistic (AV = 0.25). Mean temperature of each month was increased uniformly by 0-5 K, in 0.5- or 1-K intervals. Mean precipitation of each month was increased and decreased uniformly by 0-30%, in 10% intervals. The analyses were run at fixed CO_2 concentrations of 360 and 720 ppm. Temperature increases shifted most forest boundaries northward and westward, expanded the distribution of xeric biomes, and confined the tundra to progressively higher elevations. Precipitation increases led to a greater area occupied by mesic biomes at the expense of xeric biomes. Most vegetation types in the temperate regions, and on the Tibetan Plateau, expanded westward into the dry continental interior with increasing precipitation. Precipitation decreases had opposite effects. The modelled effect of CO_2 doubling was to partially compensate for the negative effect of drought on the mesic biomes and to increase potential ecosystem carbon storage by about 40%. Warming tended to counteract this effect, by reducing soil carbon storage. Forest biomes showed substantial resilience to climate change, especially when the effects of increasing [CO_2] were taken into account. Savannas, dry woodland and tundra biomes proved sensitive to temperature increases. The transition region of grassland and forest, and the Tibetan plateau, was the most vulnerable region.
机译：利用基于过程的平衡陆地生物圈模型BI0ME4，进行了敏感性研究，以研究中国潜在的自然植被分布对温度，降水和[CO_2]的单独和综合作用的响应。该模型基于使用AV统计量（AV = 0.25）进行的数值比较，显示出与潜在自然植被分布图的总体一致性良好。每个月的平均温度以0.5-或1-K的间隔均匀增加0-5K。每个月的平均降水量以10％的间隔均匀地增加和减少0-30％。在固定的CO_2浓度为360和720 ppm的条件下进行分析。温度升高使大多数森林边界向北和向西移动，扩大了干性生物群落的分布，并将冻原限制在逐渐升高的高度。降水增加导致中生生物群落占据更大的面积，而以干生生物群落为代价。在温带地区和青藏高原，大多数植被类型向西扩展到干燥的大陆内部，且降水增加。降水减少有相反的影响。 CO_2倍增的模拟效果是部分补偿干旱对内生生物群落的负面影响，并使潜在的生态系统碳储量增加约40％。变暖往往通过减少土壤碳储量来抵消这种影响。森林生物群落显示出对气候变化的显着适应力，尤其是在考虑到[CO_2]增加的影响时。稀树草原，干燥的林地和苔原生物群系对温度升高很敏感。草原和森林的过渡地区以及青藏高原是最脆弱的地区。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2011年第3期|p.715-727|共13页
  • 作者

    Han Wang; Jian Ni; Ian Colin Prentice;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiangshan Nanxincun 20, 100093 Beijing, China,Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia;

    State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiangshan Nanxincun 20, 100093 Beijing, China,Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Teiegrafenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;

    Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia,Grantham Institute and Division of Biology, Imperial College, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    biogeography model; sensitivity analysis; climate change; CO_2 fertilization; carbon storage; china;

    机译：生物地理模型;敏感性分析;气候变化;CO_2施肥;碳储存;中国;

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