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A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

机译：欧洲生态系统服务变化的空间明确和定量脆弱性评估

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摘要

Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer mul-tidisciplinary policy relevant questions about the vulnerability of the human-environment system to global change. Scenarios were constructed for a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate. These scenarios were used as inputs in a range of ecosystem models in order to assess the response of ecosystem function as well as the changes in the services they provide. The framework was used to relate the impacts of changing ecosystem service provision for four sectors in relation to each other, and to combine them with a simple, but generic index for societal adaptive capacity. By allowing analysis of different sectors, regions and development pathways, the vulnerability assessment provides a basis for discussion between stakeholders and policymakers about sustainable management of Europe's natural resources.
机译：环境变化会改变生态系统的功能，并可能使向人类提供服务的过程处于危险之中。本文使用一个旨在回答有关人类环境系统对全球变化的脆弱性的多学科政策相关问题的新框架，对欧洲相应的脆弱性进行了空间明确和定量的评估。为社会经济趋势，土地利用和气候的一系列可能变化制定了情景。这些情景被用作各种生态系统模型的输入，以便评估生态系统功能的响应以及它们提供的服务的变化。该框架被用来联系四个部门改变生态系统服务提供的影响，并将它们与社会适应能力的简单但通用的指标结合起来。通过允许对不同部门，地区和发展路径进行分析，脆弱性评估为利益相关者和决策者之间关于欧洲自然资源可持续管理的讨论提供了基础。

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