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The Paraguayan Chaco at a crossroads: drivers of an emerging soybean frontier

机译:在十字路口的巴拉圭chaco:新兴大豆边界的司机

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Our study analyzes potential agro-industrial soybean expansion dynamics and is the first to project soybean expansion Paraguayan Chaco. This biodiverse region, home to the greatest diversity of indigenous groups in Paraguay, has recently seen some of the world's highest deforestation rates, losing 3.4 Mha of forestland between 2001 and 2014. Soy, a globally traded commodity crop and Paraguay's largest export product, recently arrived in the area and may exacerbate the high deforestation rates currently attributed to pastureland expansion. We combine extensive field, trade, and satellite data, to analyze the context, and push-pull factors that are driving frontier expansion dynamics, and assess the potential impacts of soybean-based land use change using geo-located accounts of current soybean production sites. Our analysis finds that roughly 742,000 ha in the Paraguayan Chaco are suitable for soybean frontier expansion with an additional 940,000 ha moderately suitable for expansion. We identify the main drivers of soybean expansion in the region as agricultural technology and land price appreciation. However, infrastructure investments are set to further drive soybean expansion dynamics and connect the region via navigable rivers and roads with access to ports on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans as part of the multi-national Corredor-Bioceanico "bi-oceanic corridor" road project. The continued rapid development of this fragile landscape could transform the Paraguayan Chaco into a major South American logistics hub for soybean and other agricultural production. Without appropriate governance systems in place, this development could lead to irreversible large-scale damage to the socio-environmental systems, similar to boom dynamics seen in other South American frontiers.
机译:我们的研究分析了潜在的农业产业大豆扩张动态,是第一个项目大豆扩建巴拉圭Chaco。这个生物多样性地区,巴拉圭最大多样性的土着群体最近,最近发现了一些世界上最高的森林砍伐率,2001年至2014年间森林地区损失了3.4米。大豆,全球交易商品作物和巴拉圭最大的出口产品最近抵达该地区,可能会加剧目前归因于牧场扩张的高森林砍伐率。我们结合了广泛的现场,贸易和卫星数据,分析了驾驶前沿扩展动态的背景和推挽因子,并评估使用当前大豆生产基地的地理账户的大豆土地利用变化的潜在影响。我们的分析发现,巴拉圭Chaco中大约742,000公顷适用于大豆前沿扩展,额外的940,000公顷适合扩张。我们确定该地区大豆扩建的主要驱动因素,作为农业技术和土地价格升值。然而,基础设施投资被设定为进一步推动大豆扩展动态,并通过可通航的河流和道路连接地区,可以访问大西洋和太平洋的港口,作为多国腐败生物“双海洋走廊”道路项目的一部分。这种脆弱的景观的持续快速发展可以将巴拉圭Chaco转化为大豆和其他农业生产的主要南美物流中心。如果没有适当的治理系统,这一发展可能导致对社会环境系统的不可逆转的大规模损坏,类似于其他南美边界的繁荣动力。

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