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首页> 外文期刊>Regional science and urban economics >Exuberance and spillovers in housing markets: Evidence from first- and second-tier cities in China
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Exuberance and spillovers in housing markets: Evidence from first- and second-tier cities in China

机译：房地产市场的繁荣与溢出：来自中国一线和二线城市的证据

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Over the last few decades, exuberance (bubble) and spillovers (ripple effects) have both been observed in the overheated housing market. However, surprisingly few attempts have so far been made to integrate these two concepts to further explore China's housing market frenzies. According to growth poles, the causality between exuberance and spillovers in real estate markets is that capital is initially concentrated in first-tier cities, but the housing-price exuberance then leads to spillovers to second-tier cities. Using housing price and rental data encompassing four first-tier and six second-tier cities on a month-by-month basis, we apply recursive unit root tests to examine the degree and timing of housing booms. At the same time, a rolling-window spillover index is used to evaluate ripple effects among these cities. Our estimates indicate that Beijing as a first-tier city first exhibits episodes of exuberance, which are then transmitted to second-tier cities.
机译：在过去的几十年中，在过热的房地产市场中都发现了繁荣（泡沫）和溢出（波纹效应）。然而，迄今为止，出乎意料的是，很少有人尝试将这两个概念整合在一起，以进一步探索中国的房地产市场狂热。从增长极点来看，房地产市场的繁荣与溢出之间的因果关系是，资本最初集中在一线城市，但是房地产价格的繁荣随后导致向二线城市的溢出。我们每月使用涵盖四个一线和六个二线城市的住房价格和租金数据，应用递归单位根检验来检验住房繁荣的程度和时机。同时，使用滚动窗口溢出指数来评估这些城市之间的连锁反应。我们的估计表明，北京作为一线城市首先表现出旺盛的景象，然后传播到二线城市。

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