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Estimation and model selection of higher-order spatial autoregressive model: An efficient Bayesian approach

机译:高阶空间自回归模型的估计和模型选择:一种有效的贝叶斯方法

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In this paper we consider estimation and model selection of higher-order spatial autoregressive model by an efficient Bayesian approach. Based upon the exchange algorithm, we develop an efficient MCMC sampler, which does not rely on special features of spatial weights matrices and does not require the evaluation of the Jacobian determinant in the likelihood function. We also propose a computationally simple procedure to tackle nested model selection issues of higher-order spatial autoregressive models. We find that the exchange algorithm can be utilized to simplify the computation of Bayes factor through the Savage-Dickey density ratio. We apply the efficient estimation algorithm and the model selection procedure to study the "tournament competition" across Chinese cities and the spatial dependence of county-level voter participation rates in the 1980 U.S. presidential election.
机译:在本文中,我们考虑通过有效的贝叶斯方法对高阶空间自回归模型进行估计和模型选择。基于交换算法,我们开发了一种高效的MCMC采样器,该采样器不依赖于空间权重矩阵的特殊功能,并且不需要评估似然函数中的Jacobian行列式。我们还提出了一种计算简单的程序来解决高阶空间自回归模型的嵌套模型选择问题。我们发现交换算法可以通过Savage-Dickey密度比来简化贝叶斯因子的计算。我们应用有效的估算算法和模型选择程序来研究中国城市间的“锦标赛竞争”以及1980年美国总统大选县级选民参与率的空间依赖性。

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