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The impact of legalized casino gambling on crime

机译：合法赌场赌博对犯罪的影响

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摘要

The expansion of casino gambling has been controversial, with the economic and crime impacts heavily debated. Yet, few studies have considered the impact casinos have beyond the border of their host community or state. Using county-level data between 1994 and 2012, this paper examines the impact that casino legalization had on crime rates using a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to account for spatial dependence. A difference-in-differences model suggests that in the long term commercial casinos are associated with no significant change in crime in their host county, but crimes in surrounding adjacent counties do significantly increase. Indian casinos in contrast are associated with long-term reductions in crime in their surrounding counties. However, a distributed lag model, used to detect year-to-year variation in crime, reveals that both commercial and Indian casinos are associated with increases in crime in the years immediately following their opening. For commercial casinos these increases were statistically significant in the host county for six years, whereas for Indian casinos a statistically significant increase occurred in the first two years after opening. Impacts on surrounding adjacent counties were also significant but generally for fewer years. These initial increases in crime were offset by significant decreases in crime many years later explaining the long-term pattern captured in the difference-indifferences model.
机译：赌场赌博的扩展一直存在争议，其经济和犯罪影响受到了激烈的辩论。然而，很少有研究认为赌场所带来的影响超出其所在社区或州的边界。本文使用1994年至2012年之间的县级数据，使用空间杜宾模型（SDM）来检验赌场合法化对犯罪率的影响，以说明空间依赖性。差异模型表明，从长远来看，商业赌场与所在县的犯罪没有明显变化有关，但邻近县市的犯罪却显着增加。相反，印度赌场与周边县市的犯罪率长期下降相关。但是，用于检测犯罪数量逐年变化的分布式滞后模型显示，商业赌场和印度赌场在开业后的几年内都与犯罪的增加相关。对于商业性赌场，这些增加在所在县六年中具有统计意义，而对于印度赌场，其统计意义上的显着增加发生在开业后的头两年。对周边县的影响也很大，但通常持续的时间较短。犯罪的最初增加被许多年后犯罪的显着减少所抵消，这解释了差异差异模型中捕获的长期模式。

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