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Alternative evacuation strategies for nuclear power accidents

机译：核电事故的其他疏散策略

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摘要

In the U.S., current protective-action strategies to safeguard the public following a nuclear power accident have remained largely unchanged since their implementation in the early 1980s. In the past thirty years, new technologies have been introduced, allowing faster computations, better modeling of predicted radiological consequences, and improved accident mapping using geographic information systems (GIS). Utilizing these new technologies, we evaluate the efficacy of alternative strategies, called adaptive protective action zones (APAZs), that use site-specific and event-specific data to dynamically determine evacuation boundaries with simple heuristics in order to better inform protective action decisions (rather than relying on pre-event regulatory bright lines). Several candidate APAZs were developed and then compared to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's keyhole evacuation strategy (and full evacuation of the emergency planning zone). Two of the APAZs were better on average than existing NRC strategies at reducing either the radiological exposure, the population evacuated, or both. These APAZs are especially effective for larger radioactive plumes and at high population sites; one of them is better at reducing radiation exposure, while the other is better at reducing the size of the population evacuated.
机译：在美国，自1980年代初实施以来，当前保护核动力事故后保护公众的保护行动策略在很大程度上没有改变。在过去的三十年中，已经引入了新技术，可以使用地理信息系统（GIS）进行更快的计算，更好地预测放射后果的模型以及改进的事故映射。利用这些新技术，我们评估了称为适应性保护行动区（APAZ）的替代策略的有效性，这些策略使用特定于地点和事件的数据通过简单的启发式方法动态确定疏散边界，以便更好地告知保护行动决策（而是而不是依靠事前监管的亮线）。已经开发了几种候选APAZ，然后与核监管委员会的钥匙孔疏散策略（以及紧急计划区的完全疏散）进行了比较。平均而言，两个APAZ在减少放射线照射，撤离人口或同时减少两者方面均优于现有的NRC策略。这些APAZ对较大的放射性羽流和高人口场所特别有效。其中一个更擅长于减少辐射暴露，而另一个更擅长于减少被疏散人口的规模。

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  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2015年第3期|9-14|共6页
  • 作者

    Gregory D. Hammond; Vicki M. Bier;

  • 作者单位

    University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 3270A Mechanical Engineering Building, 1513 University Ave., Madison, WI 53706, USA,Air Force Institute of Technology, Department of Systems Engineering and Management, 2950 Hobson Way, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, 45433, USA;

    University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 3270A Mechanical Engineering Building, 1513 University Ave., Madison, WI 53706, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Nuclear incidents; Evacuation; Nuclear power plants; Emergency preparedness; Protective action recommendations;

    机译：核事故;疏散;核电厂;应急准备;防护措施建议;

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