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A risk-based method for planning of bus-subway corridor evacuation under hybrid uncertainties

机译：混合不确定性下基于风险的公交地铁走廊疏散规划方法

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摘要

Emergencies involved in a bus-subway corridor system are associated with many processes and factors with social and economic implications. These processes and factors and their interactions are related to a variety of uncertainties. In this study, an interval chance-constrained integer programming (EICI) method is developed in response to such challenges for bus-subway corridor based evacuation planning. The method couples a chance-constrained programming with an interval integer programming model framework. It can thus deal with interval uncertainties that cannot be quantified with specified probability distribution functions. Meanwhile, it can also reflect stochastic features of traffic flow capacity, and thereby help examine the related violation risk of constraint. The EICI method is applied to a subway incident based evacuation case study. It is solved through an interactive algorithm that does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels and has a relatively low computational requirement. A number of decision alternatives could be directly generated based on results from the EICI method. It is indicated that the solutions cannot only help decision makers identify desired population evacuation and vehicle dispatch schemes under hybrid uncertainties, but also provide bases for in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among evacuation plans, total evacuation time, and constraint-violation risks. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：公交地铁走廊系统中的紧急情况与许多过程和因素相关，具有社会和经济意义。这些过程和因素及其相互作用与各种不确定性有关。在这项研究中，针对基于公交地铁走廊的疏散计划的挑战，开发了一种区间机会约束整数规划（EICI）方法。该方法将机会约束编程与区间整数编程模型框架耦合。因此，它可以处理无法用指定的概率分布函数量化的区间不确定性。同时，它还可以反映交通流量的随机特征，从而有助于检查相关的违规约束风险。 EICI方法应用于基于地铁事故疏散的案例研究。它是通过一种交互式算法解决的，该算法不会导致更复杂的中间子模型，并且具有相对较低的计算要求。可以根据EICI方法的结果直接生成许多决策选择。结果表明，这些解决方案不仅可以帮助决策者在混合不确定性下确定所需的人员疏散和车辆调度方案，而且还可以为深入分析疏散计划，总疏散时间和违反约束风险之间的权衡提供基础。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2015年第7期|188-199|共12页
  • 作者

    Lv Y.; Yan X. D.; Sun W.; Gao Z. Y.;

  • 作者单位

    Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, MOE Key Lab Transportat Complex Syst Theory & Tec, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China;

    Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, MOE Key Lab Transportat Complex Syst Theory & Tec, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China;

    Univ Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada;

    Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Evacuation management; Probability; Interval; Traffic corridor; Public transit; Uncertainty;

    机译：疏散管理;概率;间隔;交通走廊;公共交通;不确定性;

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