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Warranty forecasting from incomplete two-dimensional warranty data

机译：来自不完整的二维保修数据的保修预测

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摘要

Warranty modelling with incomplete data is a major issue in reliability analysis. The incomplete failure region characterized by warranty field data may be classified into several domains representing failures from manufacturing/assembly defects, usage or fatigue. In the present paper a data driven approach has been suggested to demark the regions optimally through estimation of the change point in a hazard function. In the perspective of bivariate warranty analysis, as relevant in automobiles, we have assumed the lifetime distribution to be a mixture of distributions corresponding to the burn-in period and the useful life period. The proportions of observations in different regions demarketed by the warranty policy in the bivariate plane have been estimated by considering mileage along with age. The estimation scheme has been verified and validated through extensive simulation studies. The utilities of the results have been demonstrated by addressing several issues through a real life synthetic warranty data set from a large automobile company.
机译：具有不完整数据的保修模型是可靠性分析中的主要问题。可以将以保修字段数据为特征的不完整故障区域划分为几个域，这些域表示由于制造/装配缺陷，使用或疲劳引起的故障。在本文中，已经提出了一种数据驱动的方法来通过估计危险函数中的变化点来最佳地标记区域。从与汽车相关的二元保修分析的角度来看，我们假设寿命分布是对应于老化期和使用寿命的混合分布。通过考虑里程数和年龄，估算了在双变量飞机中由保修政策降级的不同区域中观察到的比例。该估计方案已通过广泛的仿真研究进行了验证和验证。结果的实用性已通过大型汽车公司通过现实生活中的综合保修数据集解决了几个问题得到了证明。

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