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Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants

机译：来自德国核电厂运行经验的人为错误概率

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摘要

We report about a project aimed to collect human reliability data from the operational experience of German nuclear power plants. Its objective is the validation and extension of existing human reliability databases (in particular, the THERP database). A method utilizing the German licensee event report system to gather the data is described. For certain tasks with specific attributes this method allows to determine the number of times the task was performed in the past, as well as the number of errors that occurred. A statistical method to estimate the corresponding human error probability (HEP) based on these numbers is provided. We have applied this method to the reportable events stored in the database collecting the reportable events in German nuclear installations. In this way up to now 37 HEPs for a wide variety of tasks were obtained, together with information about relevant performance shaping factors. We discuss these HEP estimates and compare them to the THERP database if it provides a HEP for the task in question. In all except three cases we find an agreement within the uncertainty bounds. Moreover, we contribute 21 HEP estimates for which the THERP handbook provides no data, so they serve to extend the THERP database, among them a number of memory related errors. Therefore, this data may serve as an input for the discussion of second generation HRA methods.
机译：我们报告了一个旨在从德国核电厂的运行经验中收集人类可靠性数据的项目。其目的是验证和扩展现有的人类可靠性数据库（尤其是THERP数据库）。描述了一种利用德国被许可人事件报告系统收集数据的方法。对于某些具有特定属性的任务，此方法可以确定过去执行任务的次数以及发生的错误数。提供了一种基于这些数字来估计相应的人为错误概率（HEP）的统计方法。我们已将此方法应用于存储在数据库中的可报告事件，该事件收集了德国核设施中的可报告事件。通过这种方式，到目前为止，已经获得了用于各种任务的37个HEP，以及有关相关绩效塑造因素的信息。我们讨论这些HEP估计值，并将其与THERP数据库进行比较（如果它为所讨论的任务提供了HEP）。除了三种情况外，我们在不确定性范围内都找到了一致。此外，我们贡献了21个HEP估计，而THERP手册没有提供任何数据，因此它们可用于扩展THERP数据库，其中包括许多与内存相关的错误。因此，此数据可以用作讨论第二代HRA方法的输入。

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