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Probabilistic study of cascading failures in complex interdependent lifeline systems

机译：复杂相互依赖的生命线系统中级联故障的概率研究

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摘要

The internal complexity of lifeline systems and their standing interdependencies can operate in conjunction to amplify the negative effects of external disruptions. This paper introduces a simulation-based methodology to evaluate the joint impact of interdependence, component fragilities, and cascading failures in systemic fragility estimates. The proposed strategy uses a graph model of interdependent networks, an enhanced betweenness centrality for cascading failures approximation, and an interdependence model accounting for coupling uncertainty in the simulation of damage propagation for probabilistic performance assessment. This methodology is illustrated through its application to a realistic set of power and water networks subjected to earthquake scenarios and random failures. Test case results reveal two key insights: (1) the intensity of a perturbation influences interdependent systemic fragility by shaping the magnitudes of initial component damage and, sometimes counter-intuitively, the subsequent interdependence effects and (2) increasing local redundancy mitigates the effects of interdependence on systemic performance, but such intervention is incapable of eliminating interdependent effects completely. The previous insights provide basic guidelines for the design of systemic retrofitting policies. Additionally, the limitations of local capacity redundancy as a fragility control measure highlight the need for a critical assessment of intervention strategies in distributed infrastructure networks. Future work will assess the fragility-reduction efficiency of strategies involving informed manipulation of individual systemic topologies and the interdependence interfaces connecting them.
机译：生命线系统的内部复杂性及其相互依存的关系可以共同发挥作用，以扩大外部干扰的负面影响。本文介绍了一种基于仿真的方法，以评估系统脆弱性估计中相互依赖，组件脆弱性和级联故障的联合影响。所提出的策略使用相互依存网络的图模型，级联故障逼近的增强的中间性中心和考虑了损害扩散模拟的概率性能评估中耦合不确定性的相互依存模型。通过将该方法应用于遭受地震情况和随机故障的一组实际的电力和水网络，可以说明此方法。测试用例结果揭示了两个关键的见解：（1）扰动的强度通过塑造初始组件损坏的大小来影响相互依存的系统脆弱性，有时，根据直觉，随后的相互依存影响；（2）增加局部冗余减轻了相互依存的影响。相互依赖的系统性能，但这种干预无法完全消除相互依存的影响。先前的见解为系统改造策略的设计提供了基本指导。此外，本地容量冗余作为一种脆弱性控制措施的局限性凸显了对分布式基础架构网络中的干预策略进行严格评估的必要性。未来的工作将评估策略的脆弱性降低效率，这些策略涉及对单个系统拓扑以及将它们连接在一起的相互依赖接口的知情操作。

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