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Practical implications of the new risk perspectives

机译:新风险观点的实际含义

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In recent years several authors have argued for the adoption of certain new types of risk perspectives which highlight uncertainties rather than probabilities in the way risk is understood and measured. The theoretical rationale for these new perspectives is well established, but the practical implications have not been so clearly demonstrated. There is a need to show how the new perspectives change the way risk is described and communicated in real-life situations and in its turn the effects on risk management and decision making. The present paper aims at contributing to this end by considering two cases, related to a national risk level, and a specific analysis concerning an LNG plant. The paper concludes that the new risk perspectives influence the current regime in many ways, in particular the manner in which the knowledge dimension is described and dealt with. Two methods for characterising the strength of knowledge are presented, one of them based on a new concept, the "assumption deviation risk", reflecting risks related to the deviations from the conditions/states defined by the assumption made.
机译:近年来,一些作者主张采用某些新型的风险观点,这些观点强调了不确定性而不是在理解和衡量风险的方式上的概率。这些新观点的理论基础已经很好地确立了,但是实际意义还没有得到清楚的证明。有必要显示新观点如何改变现实生活中描述和传达风险的方式,进而改变对风险管理和决策的影响。本文旨在通过考虑与国家风险水平相关的两个案例以及对液化天然气工厂的具体分析来为此做出贡献。本文的结论是,新的风险观点以多种方式影响当前制度,尤其是描述和处理知识维度的方式。提出了两种表征知识强度的方法,其中一种基于新概念“假设偏离风险”,它反映了与假设所定义的条件/状态偏离相关的风险。

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