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Predictive modeling of a radiative shock system

机译:辐射冲击系统的预测建模

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摘要

A predictive model is constructed for a radiative shock experiment, using a combination of a physics code and experimental measurements. The CRASH code can model the radiation hydrodynamics of the radiative shock launched by the ablation of a Be drive disk and driven down a tube filled with Xe. The code is initialized by a preprocessor that uses data from the Hyades code to model the initial 1.3 ns of the system evolution, with this data fit over seven input parameters by a Gaussian process model. The CRASH code output for shock location from 320 simulations is modeled by another Gaussian process model that combines the simulation data with eight field measurements of a CRASH experiment, and uses this joint model to construct a posterior distribution for the physical parameters of the simulation (model calibration). This model can then be used to explore sensitivity of the system to the input parameters. Comparison of the predicted shock locations in a set of leave-one-out exercises shows that the calibrated model can predict the shock location within experimental uncertainty.
机译:结合物理代码和实验测量结果,为辐射冲击实验构建了预测模型。 CRASH代码可以对Be驱动盘的烧蚀并沿装有Xe的管子向下驱动而产生的辐射冲击的辐射流体动力学建模。该代码由预处理程序初始化,该预处理程序使用来自Hyades代码的数据对系统演化的初始1.3 ns建模,并且该数据适合高斯过程模型的七个输入参数。通过另一个高斯过程模型对来自320个模拟的冲击位置的CRASH代码输出进行建模,该模型将模拟数据与CRASH实验的八个现场测量值相结合,并使用此联合模型为模拟的物理参数构造后验分布(模型校准)。然后可以使用该模型来探索系统对输入参数的敏感性。在一组免责练习中预测的冲击位置的比较表明,校准后的模型可以在实验不确定性范围内预测冲击位置。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2011年第9期|p.1184-1193|共10页
  • 作者单位

    Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States;

    Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5A 1S6;

    Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mi 48109, United States;

    Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mi 48109, United States;

    Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mi 48109, United States;

    Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mi 48109, United States;

    Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mi 48109, United States;

    Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mi 48109, United States;

    Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3143, United States;

    Institute for Applied Mathematics and Computational Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3133, United States;

    Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Ml 48109, United States;

    Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Ml 48109, United States;

    Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States;

    Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3143, United States;

    Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mi 48109, United States;

    Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mi 48109, United States;

    Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Ml 48109, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    radiative shock; predictive modeling; uncertainty analysis;

    机译:辐射冲击;预测建模;不确定度分析;

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