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Gastric esophageal surgery risk analysis with a fault tree and Markov integrated model

机译：基于故障树和马尔可夫模型的胃食管手术风险分析

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摘要

Reliability methods have been widely used in risk analysis of medical surgeries. In this study, the authors combine a fault tree with Markov models to assess time independent- and dependent factors together. Dynamics are integrated in the traditional fault tree, and meanwhile the processes of solving Markov are simplified with the modular approach. Continuous time Markov chains are adopted in evaluating the failure probability of a gastric esophageal surgery after categorizing basic events in the fault tree, and a certain time dependent variables, such as failure rate of medical equipment, surgery frequency, and rescue timeliness are involved into risk analysis. A case is studied with data collected from a general hospital, to illustrate the operational process of the proposed method. Results based on the inputs show that taking rescue actions into consideration can reduce the gap between the result of fault tree analysis and the reality. Sensitivity analysis for measuring the impacts of the above time relevant variables is conducted, as well as limitations of the Markov model are discussed.
机译：可靠性方法已广泛用于医疗手术的风险分析。在这项研究中，作者将故障树与马尔可夫模型结合在一起以一起评估时间独立和相关因素。将动力学集成在传统故障树中，同时使用模块化方法简化了求解马尔可夫的过程。在故障树中对基本事件进行分类后，采用连续时间马尔可夫链评估胃食管手术的失败概率，并且某些时间相关变量（例如医疗设备的故障率，手术频率和抢救及时性）被纳入风险分析。用从一家综合医院收集的数据对一个病例进行研究，以说明该方法的操作过程。基于输入的结果表明，考虑救援措施可以减少故障树分析结果与实际情况之间的差距。进行敏感性分析以测量上述时间相关变量的影响，并讨论了马尔可夫模型的局限性。

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