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Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland

机译：芬兰湾海上交通安全分析

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摘要

The Gulf of Finland (GOF) is geographically situated between Finland and Estonian waters. The seafloor varies between deep and shallow and a number of underwater rocks exist in the Finnish archipelago area. The marine traffic has been growing fast during the last years in this area, especially due to the rapid increase of the transportation of various cargoes to Russia and the transport of oil from Russia. In this paper the safety of the marine traffic in the GOF area is analysed. First a detail accident statistics during the last 10 years are described and thereafter the risk of ship collisions is studied by theoretical modelling in two locations. Finally the results of the theoretical models are compared with actual accident statistics. The results reveal that grounding is the dominating accident type in these waters and typically about 11 groundings take place annually, of which about one is a tanker grounding. For collision the highest risks are caused by the passenger ship/RoPax ships traffic between Helsinki and Tallinn together with the high traffic intensity eastwards/westward to and from Russian harbours. The theoretical collision models give good results when compared with the accident statistics. AIS data is utilised in the theoretical models to calculate the geometric collision probabilities.
机译：芬兰湾（GOF）在地理位置上位于芬兰和爱沙尼亚海域之间。海底在深浅之间变化，芬兰群岛地区存在许多水下岩石。在过去的几年中，海上运输一直在快速增长，特别是由于各种货物到俄罗斯的运输和从俄罗斯的石油运输的快速增长。本文对GOF地区海上交通的安全性进行了分析。首先描述了过去十年的详细事故统计数据，然后通过理论模型在两个位置研究了船舶碰撞的风险。最后，将理论模型的结果与实际事故统计数据进行比较。结果表明，在这些水域中，接地是主要的事故类型，通常每年大约发生11次接地，其中约一个是油轮接地。发生碰撞的最大风险是客船/ RoPax船在赫尔辛基和塔林之间的交通，以及往来于俄罗斯港口的东西向交通密度高。与事故统计数据相比，理论上的碰撞模型给出了良好的结果。在理论模型中使用AIS数据来计算几何碰撞概率。

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  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2009年第8期|1349-1357|共9页
  • 作者

    P. Kujala; M. Haenninen; T. Arola; J. Ylitalo;

  • 作者单位

    Helsinki University of Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, P.O. Box 5300, 02015 TKK, Finland;

    Helsinki University of Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, P.O. Box 5300, 02015 TKK, Finland;

    Helsinki University of Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, P.O. Box 5300, 02015 TKK, Finland;

    Helsinki University of Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, P.O. Box 5300, 02015 TKK, Finland;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    marine traffic safety; gulf of Finland; collision modelling; accident statistics;

    机译：海上交通安全;芬兰湾;碰撞建模;事故统计;

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