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Quantitative hazard and risk analysis for fragments of high-explosive shells in air

机译:空气中高爆炸弹碎片的定量危害和风险分析

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摘要

A hazard and risk analysis is given for personnel from primary fragments of fast moving and variably oriented high-explosive sources with spatially distributed event probability of a single event, e.g. for conventional threat. The approach assumes scenarios with static person densities on earth's surface. The spatial initiation distribution is described with a probability density function along a curve. The density can be constructed using expert estimates, technical safety analysis of an existing fuzing system or minimal technical safety requirements for fuzing systems. Arena test data are used for dynamic point source launching conditions of representative fragments to compute the physical consequences. Hazard criteria visualize the fragment density. Vulnerability models determine the individual local risk. In addition using the person density collective risks are computed. The individual and collective risks can be compared with various risk criteria, in particular for F-N curves. In a case study the approach is applied to a fuzing system of an artillery shell. Thus the post launch safety and the overhead safety or post safe separation safety taking third party into account are assessed. In this case the hazards and risks of fragments dominate when compared to blast effects. Assessing multiple scenarios the initiation density can be assessed.
机译:从人员的快速移动和方向可变的高爆炸源的主要碎片中给人员进行危险和风险分析,而单个事件在空间上的分布概率为例如对于常规威胁。该方法假设在地球表面上具有静态人员密度的场景。用沿曲线的概率密度函数描述空间初始分布。可以使用专家估算,现有引信系统的技术安全分析或引信系统的最低技术安全要求来构造密度。 Arena测试数据用于代表性片段的动态点源发射条件,以计算物理后果。危险标准可显示碎片密度。漏洞模型确定各个局部风险。另外,使用人员密度来计算集体风险。可以将个人风险和集体风险与各种风险标准进行比较,尤其是对于F-N曲线。在案例研究中,该方法被应用于炮弹的引信系统。因此,评估了考虑了第三方的发射后安全性和高架安全性或安全后分离安全性。在这种情况下,与爆炸效应相比,碎片的危害和风险占主导地位。评估多个方案,可以评估引发密度。

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