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On the value of redundancy subject to common-cause failures: Toward the resolution of an on-going debate

机译:关于因常见原因而导致的冗余的价值:解决正在进行的辩论

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Common-cause failures (CCF) are one of the more critical and challenging issues for system reliability and risk analyses. Academic interest in modeling CCF, and more broadly in modeling dependent failures, has steadily grown over the years in the number of publications as well as in the sophistication of the analytical tools used. In the past few years, several influential articles have shed doubts on the relevance of redundancy arguing that "redundancy backfires" through common-cause failures, and that the latter dominate unreliability, thus defeating the purpose of redundancy. In this work, we take issue with some of the results of these publications. In their stead, we provide a nuanced perspective on the (contingent) value of redundancy subject to common-cause failures. First, we review the incremental reliability and MTTF provided by redundancy'subject to common-cause failures. Second, we introduce the concept and develop the analytics of the "redundancy-relevance boundary": we propose this redundancy-relevance boundary as a design-aid tool that provides an answer to the following question: what level of redundancy is relevant or advantageous given a varying prevalence of common-cause failures? We investigate the conditions under which different levels of redundancy provide an incremental MTTF over that of the single component in the face of common-cause failures. Recognizing that redundancy comes at a cost, we also conduct a cost-benefit analysis of redundancy subject to common-cause failures, and demonstrate how this analysis modifies the redundancy-relevance boundary. We show how the value of redundancy is contingent on the prevalence of common-cause failures, the redundancy level considered, and the monadic cost-benefit ratio. Finally we argue that general unqualified criticism of redundancy is misguided, and efforts are better spent for example on understanding and mitigating the potential sources of common-cause failures rather than deriding the concept of redundancy in system design.
机译:常见原因故障(CCF)是系统可靠性和风险分析中较为关键和具有挑战性的问题之一。多年来,随着出版物数量以及所使用分析工具的复杂性,对CCF建模以及更广泛的对因果关系故障建模的学术兴趣一直在稳步增长。在过去的几年中,几篇有影响力的文章都对冗余的相关性提出了质疑,认为冗余是由常见原因引起的“适得其反”,而后者则主导了不可靠性,从而破坏了冗余的目的。在这项工作中,我们对这些出版物的某些结果持怀疑态度。取而代之的是,我们对受常见原因故障影响的冗余(或有)值提供了细微的了解。首先,我们回顾冗余性提供的增量可靠性和MTTF(受常见原因故障的影响)。其次,我们介绍概念并开发“冗余-相关边界”的分析:我们建议将此冗余-相关边界作为一种设计辅助工具,为以下问题提供答案:给定什么级别的冗余是相关的或有利的各种常见原因失败的发生率不同?我们研究了在面对常见原因故障时,不同级别的冗余可提供比单个组件更高的MTTF增量的情况。认识到冗余是有代价的,因此我们还对因常见原因而导致的冗余进行了成本效益分析,并演示了该分析如何修改冗余相关性边界。我们将说明冗余的价值如何取决于常见原因故障的发生率,所考虑的冗余级别以及单价成本效益比。最后,我们认为对冗余的一般无条件的批评是错误的,并且最好将精力花在理解和减轻常见原因故障的潜在原因上,而不是在系统设计中引入冗余的概念。

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