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Construction of event-tree/fault-tree models from a Markov approach to dynamic system reliability

机译：从马尔可夫方法构建事件树/故障树模型以提高动态系统的可靠性

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摘要

While the event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology is the most popular approach to probability risk assessment (PRA), concerns have been raised in the literature regarding its potential limitations in the reliability modeling of dynamic systems. Markov reliability models have the ability to capture the statistical dependencies between failure events that can arise in complex dynamic systems. A methodology is presented that combines Markov modeling with the cell-to-cell mapping technique (CCMT) to construct dynamic ETs/FTs and addresses the concerns with the traditional ET/FT methodology. The approach is demonstrated using a simple water level control system. It is also shown how the generated ETs/FTs can be incorporated into an existing PRA so that only the (sub)systems requiring dynamic methods need to be analyzed using this approach while still leveraging the static model of the rest of the system.
机译：尽管事件树（ET）/故障树（FT）方法是最流行的概率风险评估（PRA）方法，但文献中对它在动态系统可靠性建模中的潜在局限性提出了担忧。马尔可夫可靠性模型能够捕获复杂动态系统中可能发生的故障事件之间的统计依赖性。提出了一种将马尔可夫模型与单元间映射技术（CCMT）相结合的方法，以构造动态ET / FT，并解决了传统ET / FT方法的问题。使用简单的水位控制系统演示了该方法。还显示了如何将生成的ET / FT合并到现有的PRA中，从而仅需要使用这种方法来分析需要动态方法的（子系统），同时仍然利用系统其余部分的静态模型。

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  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2008年第11期|1616-1627|共12页
  • 作者

    Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; L. Anthony Mangan; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The Ohio State University, 395 Dreese Labs, 2015 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA;

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The Ohio State University, 395 Dreese Labs, 2015 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA;

    The Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, 427 Scott Laboratory, 201 West 19th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA;

    The Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, 427 Scott Laboratory, 201 West 19th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA;

    Idaho National Laboratory, MS 3850, Idaho Falls, ID 83415, USA;

    Idaho National Laboratory, MS 3850, Idaho Falls, ID 83415, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Markov; dynamic reliability; PRA; dynamic event tree; dynamic fault tree;

    机译：马尔可夫动态可靠性PRA;动态事件树;动态故障树;

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