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Quantitative security analysis of a dynamic network system under lateral movement-based attacks

机译：基于横向移动攻击的动态网络系统的定量安全性分析

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Malicious lateral movement-based attacks have become a potential risk for many systems, bringing highly likely threats to critical infrastructures and national security. When launching this kind of attacks, adversaries first compromise a fraction of the targeted system and then move laterally to the rest of the system until the whole system is infected. Various approaches were proposed to study and/or defend against lateral movement-based attacks. However, few of them studied transient behaviors of dynamic attacking and dynamic targeted systems. This paper aims to analyze the transient security of a dynamic network system under lateral movement-based attacks from the time that attack-related abnormity in the system is detected until mechanisms are designed and deployed to defend against attacks. We explore state-space modeling techniques to construct a survivability model for quantitative analysis. A phased piecewise constant approximation approach is also proposed to derive the formulas for calculating model state transient probabilities, with which we derive formulas for calculating metrics of interest. The proposed approach allows both model state transition rates and the number of model states to be time-varying during the system recovery. Numerical analysis is carried out for investigating the impact of various dynamic system parameters on system security.
机译：基于恶意的横向移动的攻击已成为许多系统的潜在风险，给关键基础设施和国家安全带来了极大的威胁。发起此类攻击时，对手首先会破坏目标系统的一小部分，然后横向移动到系统的其余部分，直到整个系统被感染为止。提出了各种方法来研究和/或防御基于横向运动的攻击。但是，很少有人研究动态攻击和动态目标系统的瞬态行为。本文旨在分析动态网络系统在基于横向移动的攻击下的瞬态安全性，从发现系统中与攻击相关的异常现象到设计和部署抵御攻击的机制为止。我们探索状态空间建模技术，以构建用于定量分析的生存模型。还提出了一种分阶段的分段常数逼近方法来导出用于计算模型状态瞬态概率的公式，通过该公式可以导出用于计算感兴趣度量的公式。所提出的方法允许模型状态转换速率和模型状态数量在系统恢复期间都是时变的。进行了数值分析，以研究各种动态系统参数对系统安全性的影响。

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