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Analysis of simplification in Markov-based models for performance assessment of Safety Instrumented System

机译：基于Markov的安全仪表系统性能评估模型的简化分析

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摘要

One of the challenges in the use of Markov model in reliability analysis is the exponential growth of number of states and transition rates when the system gets complex. In reliability analysis of a complex safety-instrumented system a simplified model is always desired for reducing the computational cost. In practice, the complex models can be simplified to a much simpler model, which can give almost similar results with some degree of deviation. Depending on the need for the level of accuracy of results, the deviation can be partly compensated with introducing correction factors. The approximated result from the simplified model may or may not influence decision making depending on the degree of deviation and expected accuracy from the analysis. This paper shows how a complex model is simplified through an analytical approach. Comparison of results from both complex and simplified models is presented to discuss the extent in which, this variation influences decision making.
机译：在可靠性分析中使用马尔可夫模型所面临的挑战之一是，当系统变得复杂时，状态数量和跃迁速率将呈指数增长。在复杂的安全仪表系统的可靠性分析中，总是需要简化的模型来减少计算成本。在实践中，可以将复杂模型简化为简单得多的模型，这可以给出几乎相似的结果，但有一定程度的偏差。根据结果​​准确性水平的需要，可以通过引入校正因子来部分补偿偏差。简化模型的近似结果可能会或可能不会影响决策，具体取决于偏差程度和分析的预期准确性。本文展示了如何通过分析方法简化复杂模型。对比了复杂模型和简化模型的结果，以讨论这种变化在多大程度上影响决策。

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