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首页> 外文期刊>Reliability Engineering & System Safety >Risk analysis for consumer-level utility gas and liquefied petroleum gas incidents using probabilistic network modeling: A case study of gas incidents in Japan
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Risk analysis for consumer-level utility gas and liquefied petroleum gas incidents using probabilistic network modeling: A case study of gas incidents in Japan

机译：使用概率网络建模对消费者水平的公用事业天然气和液化石油气事故进行风险分析：以日本的天然气事故为例

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摘要

Utility gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are commonly used in Japan for their convenience as fuels for household and commercial needs. Although several efforts have been made to promote the safe use of gas, more gas accidents occur at the consumer level than in gas production facilities or in the supply chain. Incident investigations can acquire facts about the causes and effects of these accidents. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic network modeling approach in which the inherent characteristics of risk factors for consumer-level gas incidents are considered. In the approach, cause-effect chains are formulated for gas incidents, and network diagrams with probabilistic estimations are constructed to indicate the structure behind the occurrence of such incidents. The investigation shows that most gas incidents are caused by more than one risk factor, and one risk factor tends to cascade into others. These risk factors can be clustered according to their nature and can also be classified as originating causes or intermediate risk factors by analyzing their interdependencies in network diagrams. By identifying significant intermediate effects together with their causes, these risk factors can be reduced, which may reduce the occurrence of serious gas incidents at the consumer level.
机译：在日本，公用燃气和液化石油气（LPG）方便使用，可满足家庭和商业需求。尽管已经做出了一些努力来促进天然气的安全使用，但是与天然气生产设施或供应链相比，在消费者层面发生的天然气事故更多。事故调查可以获取有关这些事故的原因和后果的事实。在本文中，我们提出了一种概率网络建模方法，其中考虑了用户级天然气事故的危险因素的固有特征。在该方法中，为气体事故制定了因果链，并构造了带有概率估计值的网络图以指示此类事故发生的背后结构。调查显示，大多数瓦斯事故是由一种以上的危险因素引起的，而一种危险因素往往会叠加到另一种危险因素中。这些风险因素可以根据其性质进行聚类，也可以通过在网络图中分析它们之间的相互依赖性，将其分类为起源原因或中间风险因素。通过识别重大的中间影响及其原因，可以减少这些风险因素，从而可以减少消费者一级严重的瓦斯事故的发生。

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