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Integration of physical infrastructure and social systems in communities' reliability and resilience analysis

机译：物理基础设施和社会系统的集成，以进行社区的可靠性和复原力分析

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摘要

This paper proposes probabilistic flow-based models for the capacity and demand of critical infrastructure considering different levels of resolution. The models are set in a probabilistic procedure that captures the impact of the damaging event on the infrastructure. The procedure predicts the reduction or loss of functionality of the infrastructure in terms of their ability to provide essential goods or services. In the aftermath of a damaging event, infrastructure change their capacities, due to the damage to the physical components, and they may not be able to satisfy pre-event demands. Furthermore, the post-event demands at the nodes of the infrastructure might change because of the human response (e.g., evacuation or relocation.) The probabilistic procedure presented in this paper integrates physical infrastructure and social systems to predict the change in demand on the infrastructure. As an example, the paper applies the proposed procedure to the modeling of the potable water network of Seaside, Oregon considering a seismic event as the damaging event. The paper shows that neglecting the interdependency between physical infrastructure and social systems may result in estimates of i) higher demands on the physical systems; ii) slower recovery; and iii) smaller impacts on society in terms of population dislocation.
机译：本文针对考虑不同级别分辨率的关键基础设施的容量和需求提出了基于概率流的模型。这些模型是按照概率性过程设置的，该过程捕获了破坏性事件对基础架构的影响。该过程根据提供基本商品或服务的能力来预测基础结构功能的减少或丧失。在发生破坏性事件之后，由于物理组件的损坏，基础架构会更改其容量，并且它们可能无法满足事件前的需求。此外，由于人的反应（例如撤离或搬迁），基础设施节点上的事后需求可能会发生变化。本文介绍的概率过程将物理基础设施和社会系统集成在一起，以预测基础设施需求的变化。例如，本文将拟议的程序应用到俄勒冈州海边的饮用水网络建模中，将地震事件视为破坏事件。该论文表明，忽视物理基础设施和社会系统之间的相互依赖性可能导致以下估计：i）对物理系统的更高要求； ii）恢复较慢； iii）人口流离失所对社会的影响较小。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2019年第5期|476-492|共17页
  • 作者

    Guidotti Roberto; Gardoni Paolo; Rosenheim Nathanael;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Illinois, MAE Ctr, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL 61801 USA|Colorado State Univ, MST Ctr Excellence Risk Based Community Resilienc, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA;

    Univ Illinois, MAE Ctr, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL 61801 USA|Colorado State Univ, MST Ctr Excellence Risk Based Community Resilienc, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA;

    Texas A&M Univ, Dept Landscape Architecture & Urban Planning, College Stn, TX USA|Colorado State Univ, MST Ctr Excellence Risk Based Community Resilienc, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Physical infrastructure; Social systems; Capacity; Demand; Flow; Community resilience;

    机译：物理基础设施;社会系统;容量;需求;流量;社区弹性;

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