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Reliability analysis and optimum maintenance of coastal flood defences using probabilistic deterioration modelling

机译：基于概率退化模型的沿海防洪可靠性分析与最优维护

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摘要

This paper presents a method for time-dependent reliability analysis, future performance predictions and optimum maintenance strategy of coastal flood defences such as earth sea dykes subjected to changing operation conditions. The reliability analysis takes into account both the changes of hydraulic variables such as water level and wave height due to climate change and the deterioration of structural capacities such as crest freeboard loss and soil seepage length degradation over time. A probabilistic time-dependent semi-Markov process is adopted for estimating the transition probabilities on the basis of available field data through routine inspections and expert judgements. Limit state equations are established for evaluating time-dependent probability of failures associated with wave overtopping through the flood defence crest and piping in the underlying water conductive soils. A multi-objective optimisation method is then employed to find optimum solution space for asset inspection and maintenance by minimising both costs for inspection and annual risk of structural failures. The results for a typical earth sea dyke at Thames Estuary show that the probability of failures associated with wave overtopping and soil piping will increase significantly over time, thus appropriate maintenance strategy is required to reduce the risk caused by changing operating conditions.
机译：本文提出了一种基于时变的可靠性分析方法，未来性能预测以及在操作条件变化的情况下对诸如海堤的沿海防洪措施的最佳维护策略。可靠性分析考虑了气候变化引起的水力变量（如水位和波高）的变化以及结构能力的恶化（如波峰干舷损失和土壤渗流长度随时间的退化）。采用概率依赖于时间的半马尔可夫过程，通过常规检查和专家判断，在可获得的现场数据的基础上估算过渡概率。建立了极限状态方程，以评估与时间相关的失效概率，这些失效与通过防洪堤和下层导水土壤中的管道翻越浪有关。然后，采用多目标优化方法，通过最小化检查成本和年度结构故障风险，找到资产检查和维护的最佳解决方案空间。泰晤士河口典型的海堤工程的结果表明，与波浪越过顶部和土壤管道相关的故障概率将随着时间的推移而显着增加，因此需要采取适当的维护策略以降低因工况变化而引起的风险。

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