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On decision optimality of terrorism risk mitigation measures for iconic bridges

机译：标志性桥梁恐怖主义风险缓解措施的决策最优性

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This paper describes the assessment of the cost efficiency of risk mitigation strategies for terrorist attacks with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) for an iconic bridge structure. The assessment is performed with a decision theoretical framework building upon very recent advances in the COST Action TU1402 on Quantifying the Value of Structural Heath Monitoring. The decision scenario is formulated for a decision maker constituting an authority responsible for the societal safety of the infrastructure and consequently the direct risks for the infrastructure owner and the indirect risk due to fatalities and importance of the infrastructure are considered. The mitigation strategies are classified within the decision theoretical context as prior analyses for the assessment of protection strategies and as control strategies requiring a pre-posterior decision analysis. The identification of efficient risk mitigation strategies is based (1) on the risk and expected cost based optimization of actions and information and their combination before implementation, (2) on quantifying and ensuring the significance in risk and expected cost reduction and (3) on quantifying and ensuring a high probability of cost efficiency. These criteria, i.e. the optimality, significance and efficiency ensure the performance of the strategies at the decision point in time before implementation. It is found that the strategies are relying on the identification of the threat level and that control strategies are in favor as their significance and probability of efficiency are higher and their costs are adjustable. However, for high threat levels, both the bridge protection strategies and control strategies are cost efficient.
机译：本文介绍了对具有标志性桥梁结构的简易爆炸装置（IED）进行恐怖袭击的风险缓解策略的成本效率评估。评估是基于决策理论框架进行的，该理论框架建立在COST行动TU1402“量化结构健康监测的价值”的最新进展的基础上。该决策方案是为决策者制定的，该决策者构成负责基础设施的社会安全的机构，因此考虑了基础设施所有者的直接风险以及由于致命性和基础设施重要性而造成的间接风险。缓解策略在决策理论环境中被分类为用于评估保护策略的先前分析，以及为需要事后进行决策分析的控制策略。有效的风险缓解策略的确定是基于（1）基于风险和预期成本的行动和信息优化及其在实施之前的组合；（2）量化并确保降低风险和预期成本的重要性；以及（3）量化并确保高成本效率的可能性。这些标准（即最优性，重要性和效率）确保了策略在实施之前的决策时间点的性能。发现该策略依赖于威胁级别的识别，并且控制策略是有利的，因为其重要性和效率更高，并且其成本是可调整的。但是，对于高威胁级别，网桥保护策略和控制策略都具有成本效益。

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