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Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability

机译：专家判断标定和组合，用于评估河堤失败概率

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摘要

In civil engineering, the utilisation of expert judgement is important for evaluating the reliability of structures whose failure behaviour is little known and difficult to quantify. This article presents the application of the approaches of elicitation, calibration and aggregation of expert opinions to evaluate the reliability of river levees. These approaches have seldom been used in the field of French hydraulic structures whereas there is growing interest for them in other countries, concerning structures reliability and other fields such as aerospace industry, nuclear industry, hydrology, statistics, economics, psychology etc. This article proposes a quantitative approach to the use of expert judgement for evaluating river levee failure probability. An application to the case of an existing river levee is presented. The approach developed assesses the expert opinions according to their calibration (statistical accuracy) and their informativeness, then aggregates them in a single calibrated opinion. Applying the proposed weighting and aggregation procedure reduces variability in the probability of failure estimate, then it provides a better probabilistic distribution of aggregated expert opinion than of individual expert opinions. The results allow identifying a trend of aggregated expert opinions that point towards over- or lack of confidence.u
机译：在土木工程中，利用专家判断对于评估其失效行为鲜为人知且难以量化的结构的可靠性非常重要。本文介绍了专家意见的启发，标定和汇总方法在评估河堤安全性方面的应用。这些方法很少在法国水工建筑领域中使用，而在其他国家，涉及结构可靠性以及航空航天工业，核工业，水文学，统计学，经济学，心理学等其他领域的兴趣也越来越高。本文提出运用专家判断评估河堤失败概率的定量方法。提出了对现有河堤的案例的应用。所开发的方法根据专家的意见（统计准确性）和信息性来评估专家的意见，然后将其汇总到一个已校准的意见中。应用所提出的加权和汇总程序可以减少失败估计概率的可变性，然后，与单独的专家意见相比，它可以提供更好的概率，以汇总专家意见的概率分布。结果可以确定专家意见汇总的趋势，这些趋势表明过度或缺乏信心。

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  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2019年第8期|377-392|共16页
  • 作者

    Hathout Michel; Vuillet Marc; Carvajal Claudio; Peyras Laurent; Diab Youssef;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Paris Est, Ecole Ingenieurs Vile Paris, LabUrba, 80 Rue Ribeval, F-75019 Paris, France|Irstea, Unite Rech RECOVER, 3275 Route Cazanne,CS 40061, F-13182 Aix En Provence, France;

    Univ Paris Est, Ecole Ingenieurs Vile Paris, LabUrba, 80 Rue Ribeval, F-75019 Paris, France;

    Irstea, Unite Rech RECOVER, 3275 Route Cazanne,CS 40061, F-13182 Aix En Provence, France;

    Irstea, Unite Rech RECOVER, 3275 Route Cazanne,CS 40061, F-13182 Aix En Provence, France;

    Univ Paris Est, Ecole Ingenieurs Vile Paris, LabUrba, 80 Rue Ribeval, F-75019 Paris, France|Univ Paris Est Marne la Vallee, LabUrba, Bur J29,Bat Lavoisier,5 Blvd Descartes, F-77420 Champs Sur Marne, France;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Structural reliability; Subjective probability; Levees, Expert judgement; Elicitation; Calibration;

    机译：结构可靠性;主观概率;水平;专家判断;启发;校准;

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