Statistical aspects of best estimate method―I

Attila Guba; Mihaly Makai; Lenard Pal

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Statistical aspects of best estimate method―I

机译：最佳估计方法的统计方面

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In former years, thermal hydraulics phenomena have been analyzed mostly by means of conservative models. Recently there is a tendency to revert to best estimate safety analysis of thermal hydraulics phenomena in a nuclear power plant. In a best estimate analysis we have to know the uncertainty of the estimated values. We investigate two aspects of the error analysis. Firstly, we define a black box model of the thermal hydraulic calculation and derive the precise number of sample calculations needed for a given tolerance level even for several statistically dependent output variables. Then we point out possible chaotic behavior of calculation along with suggesting methods for recognizing the appearance of chaos.

机译：在过去的几年中，主要通过保守模型来分析热工水力现象。最近，有一种趋势是恢复对核电厂热水力现象的安全性分析的最佳估计。在最佳估计分析中，我们必须知道估计值的不确定性。我们研究了错误分析的两个方面。首先，我们定义了热力水力计算的黑匣子模型，即使对于几个统计相关的输出变量，也得出了给定公差水平所需的精确样本计算数量。然后我们指出了计算中可能出现的混沌行为，并提出了识别混沌现象的建议方法。

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来源
《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2003年第3期|p.217-232|共16页
作者
Attila Guba; Mihaly Makai; Lenard Pal;
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作者单位

KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute, P.O. Box 49, H-1525 Budapest, Hungary;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类安全科学;工程基础科学;
关键词
safety analysis; black box model; best estimate; statistics; chaos;

机译：安全分析;黑匣子模型;最佳估计;统计;混乱;

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Statistical aspects of best estimate method―I

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