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Proving properties of accidents

机译：证明事故性质

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摘要

Accident reports are produced by regulatory and commercial authorities, such as the UK Air Accident Investigation Branch and the US National Transportation Safety Board, in response to most major accidents. These documents are intended to ensure that disasters do not recur. They, typically, contain accounts of the human and system failures that lead to major accidents. These descriptions are then used to identify the primary and secondary causes of the failure. Finally, recommendations are made so that the operators and regulators of safety- critical systems can avoid future accidents. Unfortunately, it is often difficult for readers to trace the way in which particular conclusions are drawn from the many hundreds of pages of evidence in these reports. Natural language arguments often contain implicit assumptions and ambiguous remarks that prevent readers from understanding the reasons why a particular conclusion was drawn from a particular accident. In contrast, this paper argues that mathematical proof techniques can be used to support the findings of accident investigations. These techniques enable analysts to formally demonstrate that a particular conclusion is justified given the evidence in a report. In doing so, it is possible to identify missing pieces of evidence, to identify ambiguities and to determine which items of evidence are critical to particular lines of argument. The later sections of this paper then introduce Conclusion, Analysis and Evidence diagrams. These can be used to communicate the results of a formal analysis. The intention is not to replace the natural argumentation structures that are currently used in accident reports. Rather, our aim is to increase our confidence that particular conclusions are well supported by the evidence that is presented within a report. Finally, we show how CAE diagrams may be used in conjunction with design rationale techniques that have been proposed to support the design of safety-critical applications. This helps to ensure that findings about previous failures are propagated into the subsequent development of future systems.
机译：事故报告是由监管机构和商业机构（例如英国航空事故调查处和美国国家运输安全委员会）针对大多数重大事故而制作的。这些文件旨在确保灾难不会再次发生。通常，它们包含导致重大事故的人员和系统故障的说明。这些描述然后用于确定故障的主要和次要原因。最后，提出了建议，以使安全关键系统的操作者和监管者可以避免将来发生事故。不幸的是，对于这些报告中数百页的证据，读者通常很难追踪得出特定结论的方式。自然语言的论点通常包含隐含的假设和含糊不清的言论，使读者无法理解为什么从特定事故中得出特定结论的原因。相反，本文认为数学证明技术可用于支持事故调查的结果。这些技术使分析师能够正式证明，鉴于报告中的证据，特定结论是合理的。通过这样做，有可能识别出丢失的证据，识别歧义并确定哪些证据对特定论点至关重要。然后，本文的后续部分介绍结论，分析和证据图。这些可以用来传达形式分析的结果。目的不是取代事故报告中当前使用的自然论证结构。相反，我们的目标是增强我们的信心，即报告中提供的证据充分支持了特定的结论。最后，我们展示了如何将CAE图与已提出来支持安全关键型应用程序设计的设计原理技术结合使用。这有助于确保将有关先前故障的发现传播到未来系统的后续开发中。

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