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The use of real option in condition-based maintenance scheduling for wind turbines with production and deterioration uncertainties

机译：基于条件的维护调度的实际选择的使用和劣化不确定性的使用

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摘要

Preventive maintenance planning is an important problem for the handling of energy production systems with high down time costs. Throughout the last decade different maintenance strategies have been developed and optimized in order to minimize operational and maintenance costs whilst conserving and improving the system reliability and productivity. Preventive maintenance strategies are usually based on the monitoring and the prediction of the system behavior and its deterioration process. However, some industrial systems may be operating under a dynamic environment and/or variable working conditions. In this case both the deterioration and the production processes may not be deterministic and incorporate different types of uncertainties. In this paper, we consider the case of a preventive maintenance strategy for a production system subject to uncertainty. For this system, a decision-making procedure for condition-based maintenance planning is proposed. In order to consider uncertainty in production and deterioration processes, these latter are modeled by non-monotonic stochastic processes. The modeling of deterioration processes by means of jump-diffusion stochastic processes has been proposed in our previous work. In this paper, a decision-making approach for preventive maintenance strategies is proposed. Knowing the remaining useful life of a system, a simulation-based real options analysis is used in order to determine the best date to maintain. Considering a case study of a wind turbine with PHM structure, the decision-making approach is described and tested through an empirical example. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：预防性维护计划是处理能源生产系统的重要问题，具有较高的时间成本。在过去十年中，已经开发和优化了不同的维护策略，以尽量减少运营和维护成本，同时节省和提高系统可靠性和生产率。预防性维护策略通常基于监测和对系统行为的预测及其恶化过程。然而，一些工业系统可以在动态环境和/或可变工作条件下操作。在这种情况下，劣化和生产过程都可能不是确定性的并且包含不同类型的不确定性。在本文中，我们考虑了对不确定性的生产系统预防性维护策略的情况。对于该系统，提出了一种基于条件的维护计划的决策过程。为了考虑生产和劣化过程的不确定性，这些后者由非单调随机过程进行建模。在我们之前的工作中提出了通过跳跃扩散随机过程的劣化过程的建模。本文提出了一种预防性维护策略的决策方法。了解系统的剩余使用寿命，使用了一种基于模拟的实际选项分析，以便确定保持最佳日期。考虑到具有PHM结构的风力涡轮机的案例研究，通过经验例描述和测试决策方法。 （c）2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2019年第8期|614-623|共10页
  • 作者

    Ghamlouch Houda; Fouladirad Mitra; Grail Antoine;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Technol Troyes Charles Delaunay Inst CNRS UMR 6281 12 Rue Marie Curie F-10004 Troyes France;

    Univ Technol Troyes Charles Delaunay Inst CNRS UMR 6281 12 Rue Marie Curie F-10004 Troyes France;

    Univ Technol Troyes Charles Delaunay Inst CNRS UMR 6281 12 Rue Marie Curie F-10004 Troyes France;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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