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Modeling ageing effects for multi-state systems with multiple components subject to competing and dependent failure processes

机译:具有竞争和依赖失败过程的多个组件的多状态系统建模老化效应

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摘要

This paper explores how the ageing process affects the two dependent and competing failure processes in the context of multi-state systems with multiple components. Ageing process is assumed to result in the decline of the product's intrinsic capacity to resist the exposed stresses. The state residence time is explicitly modeled with the consideration of the potential transition gap (the total number of states that the state transition process needs to stride across) and the cumulative ageing probability which is a measure of the likelihood that the product strength degrades. The random shock is assumed to cause abrupt changes in the one-step transition probabilities. The damage size is jointly determined by the shock magnitude and the cumulative ageing probability. Reliability analysis is conducted based on the continuous-time semi-Markov chain. Reliability functions for the degradation, abrupt failure, and competing failure processes are obtained respectively. An illustrative example of a multi-state transformer with four multi-state components is studied to demonstrate how the proposed method can be applied to the engineering practice.
机译:本文探讨了老化过程如何在具有多个组件的多状态系统的上下文中影响两个依赖和竞争失败过程。假设老化过程导致产品的内在能力下降以抵抗暴露的应力。通过考虑潜在的过渡差距(状态过渡过程需要跨越的状态的总数)和累积老化概率的尺寸是明确建模的状态停留时间,这是一种衡量产品强度降解的可能性的衡量标准。假设随机冲击导致一步转换概率的突然变化。损伤大小由震动幅度和累积老化概率共同决定。可靠性分析基于连续时间半马尔可夫链进行。获得可靠性函数,用于降级,突然发生故障和竞争失败过程。研究了具有四个多状态分量的多状态变压器的说明性示例,以演示所提出的方法如何应用于工程实践。

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