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How to determine the largest global and national risks: Review and discussion

机译：如何确定最大的全球和国家风险：审查和讨论

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摘要

Does security risk represent a higher global risk than natural disasters? Is flooding risk globally greater than infrastructure failure risk? Such questions are answered using global and national risk metrics and characterisations, for example as conducted by the World Economic Forum and many national safety and security agencies. The metrics and characterisations aim to inform decision makers, politicians and the public in general about serious hazards and threats that we face today and, in this way, contribute to more science-informed policies and decisions. How to best identify the highest risks is, however, challenging. Strong criticism has been raised against current approaches, for example the one adopted by WEF. The present paper performs a review and discussion of the subject area - how to best determine the largest global and national risks - based on a study of theoretical rationale and developments of the risk concept and how to measure or describe it, as well as of quality aspects like validity, uncertainty and usefulness. Three main risk perspectives are considered as a basis for the evaluation: expected consequences (EC), consequences and probability (C,P) and consequences and uncertainty (C,U). Recommendations are presented, based on what is considered as current risk science knowledge.
机译：安全风险是否与自然灾害更高的全球风险？全球范围内的洪水风险大于基础设施故障风险吗？使用全球和国家风险指标和特征回答了这些问题，例如由世界经济论坛和许多国家安全和安全机构进行的。指标和特征旨在向决策者，政治家和公众通报今天我们面临的严重危害和威胁，以这种方式促进了更多的科学知情的政策和决定。然而，如何最好地确定最高风险是挑战性的。强烈的批评被提出对目前的方法，例如WEF采用的方法。本文介绍了对主题领域的审查和讨论 - 如何最佳地确定最大的全球和国家风险 - 基于对风险概念的理论理由和发展的研究以及如何衡量或描述它以及质量的研究方面是有效性，不确定性和有用性。三个主要风险观点被视为评价的基础：预期后果（EC），后果和概率（C，P）和后果和后果（C，U）。基于被视为当前风险科学知识的内容，提出了建议。

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  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2020年第7期|106905.1-106905.10|共10页
  • 作者

    Aven Terje;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Stavanger Stavanger Norway;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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