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A risk model of passenger ship fire safety and its application

机译：乘客防火安全风险模型及其应用

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摘要

A risk model for assessing a passenger ship's fire safety at the design stage is proposed. Current maritime legislation requires, in principle, compliance with prescriptive regulations of fire prevention, protection and extinction. In a forward step, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) permitted acceptance of fire-safety-equivalent designs on the basis of performance-based assessment procedures. However, the inherent randomness of onboard fire events has not yet been systematically accounted. In this respect, procedures currently applied for fire safety evaluation during ship design, lag behind those applied for the avoidance of ship capsize due to watertight compartments' flooding, where a probabilistic approach has been in place since long ago. The current work is intended to enhance the probabilistic character of performance-based ship fire assessments; and to establish a consistent risk calculation framework which could also serve in the future as the backbone model of a more integrated approach to ship risk calculation. The core of the proposed model is a risk function combining the probability of ignition, the reliability of the installed suppression systems, and the prediction of the loss given a fire's growth. Design details, such as the space layout and the interior design materials, are fully taken into account. The estimation of the loss is realized by high fidelity simulations. The loss appears in the form of a distribution of fatalities. Several practical risk indices are extracted from the risk function, reflecting potential designer preferences. For demonstrating the practicality of the proposed risk model, a part of a cruise ship's fire zone, accommodating public spaces, is considered. The fire safety performance of the design is evaluated by using the extracted risk indices whose consistency in reflecting the safety level are discussed.
机译：提出了一种在设计阶段评估客船消防安全的风险模型。目前的海事立法原则上要求遵守防火，保护和灭绝的规范性规定。在前瞻性步骤中，国际海事组织（IMO）在基于绩效的评估程序的基础上允许接受消防等效设计。但是，船上灭火事件的固有随机性尚未得到系统地占。在这方面，目前在船舶设计期间申请了消防安全评估的程序，落后于应用于避免船舶的船舶由于水密隔间的洪水，从而简单地存在概率的方法。目前的工作旨在增强基于性能的船舶火灾评估的概率特征;并建立一致的风险计算框架，该框架也可以作为更加综合的运输风险计算方法的骨干模型服务。所提出的模型的核心是一种风险函数，结合点火概率，所安装的抑制系统的可靠性以及给予火灾的生长的损失的预测。设计细节，如空间布局和室内设计材料，完全考虑在内。通过高保真模拟实现损失的估计。损失以死亡的分布形式出现。从风险功能中提取了几种实际风险指标，反映了潜在的设计者偏好。为了证明拟议风险模式的实用性，考虑了巡航船舶的火灾区的一部分，可容纳公共场所。通过使用反映安全水平的一致性的提取的风险指标，评估设计的防火安全性能。

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