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Multi-State System Modeling and Reliability Assessment for Groups of High-speed Train Wheels

机译：高速列车车轮组的多状态系统建模与可靠性评估

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摘要

The polygonization of high-speed train wheels is commonly considered as a serious threat to reliability of high-speed trains all over the world. Traditional studies in polygonization of wheels focus on modeling its mechanism via physics-based models. However, to the knowledge of the authors, the polygonization process has not been fully explained by existing studies due to the complex degradation mechanism and varying operation environment which is difficult to monitor and measure. In this article, the data-driven multi-state system (MSS) models are developed for the reliability assessment of high-speed train wheels based on the analysis of actual operation data. The results can be used to support practical maintenance decision making. Another contribution of this paper is to prove that the environmental factors exert significant impacts on the reliability of Chinese high-speed train wheels. This finding has been included in the development of the MSS models. The results by these models are used to suggest a more reasonable maintenance schedule for Chinese high-speed train wheels. The obtained maintenance intervals are expected to assist the railway companies to reduce the operational risk as well as improve the maintenance efficiency.
机译：高速列车车轮的多边形通常被认为是对世界各地高速列车可靠性的严重威胁。车轮多边体化的传统研究侧重于基于物理学模型建模机制。然而，对于作者的知识，由于复杂的降解机制和变化的操作环境，尚未通过现有研究完全解释多边形过程，这难以监测和测量。在本文中，基于实际操作数据的分析，为高速列车车轮的可靠性评估开发了数据驱动的多状态系统（MSS）模型。结果可用于支持实际维护决策。本文的另一个贡献是为了证明环境因素对中国高速列车车轮的可靠性产生了重大影响。此发现已被列入MSS模型的开发。这些模型的结果用于为中国高速列车车轮提出更合理的维护计划。预计获得的维护间隔将协助铁路公司降低运营风险，并提高维护效率。

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