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Application of Extended Cox Regression Model to Time-On-Wing Data of Aircraft Repairables

机译：扩展COX回归模型在飞机维修时翼翼数据的应用

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摘要

Global and local aviation traffic is growing while economic and performance pressures on the industry are increasing. As a consequence, airlines try to maximise their fleet utilization. Airline operators and Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) providers therefore require as much insight as possible in factors affecting component reliability and availability. Reliability analysis in literature rarely considers the existence of relations between explanatory variables and time-based component reliability, and includes strict assumptions on independence of events and underlying distributions. This disregards the complex nature of aircraft operations, where the probability of an event may be influenced by various operational and maintenance factors. This paper develops new insights from operational and maintenance data about the impact of operating environment and ageing of components and fleet on reliability of the components by incorporating these factors in an extension of the Cox regression model. Examination of results obtained from analysing historical data of a set of three components with respect to installations and removals indicate that the natural environment at the hub airport, maintenance history of components, the age of the aircraft on which the component is installed and different modification designs are useful significant predictors of the time-on-wing duration of the component.
机译：全球和当地航空交通正在增长，而业界的经济和绩效压力正在增加。因此，航空公司试图最大限度地提高他们的舰队利用率。因此，航空公司运营商和维护，维修和大修（MRO）提供商在影响组件可靠性和可用性的因素中，可能需要尽可能多的洞察力。文献中的可靠性分析很少考虑解释变量和基于时间的组件可靠性之间的关系的存在，并且包括关于事件独立性和底层分布的严格假设。这无视飞机操作的复杂性，其中事件的可能性可能受到各种操作和维护因素的影响。本文通过在Cox回归模型的延伸中结合这些因素，开发了关于操作环境和组件的影响的操作和维护数据以及组件的可靠性的新洞察力。检查从分析了一组三个组成部分的历史数据的结果，并删除表明，集线器机场的自然环境，组件的维护历史，安装了部件的飞机的年龄和不同的修改设计是组件的翼翼持续时间的有用重要预测因子。

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  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2020年第12期|107136.1-107136.11|共11页
  • 作者

    Thijssens O. W. M.; Verhagen Wim J. C.;

  • 作者单位

    Delft Univ Technol Fac Aerosp Engn Dept Control & Operat Sect Air Transport & Operat Delft Netherlands;

    RMIT Univ Sch Engn Aerosp Engn & Aviat Melbourne Vic Australia;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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